Cianorte 1–3 Santa Catarina: Result & Stats

Cianorte

FT

1 – 3

HT: 1 – 0

Santa Catarina

Reifit 45'

Piaui 90', 58'

Alex Goncalves 78'

5/31/2026

Serie D · Round 9Estadio Olimpico Albino Turbay

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Cianorte50%

×Draw24%

Santa Catarina26%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

CianorteExpected goals in this matchSanta Catarina

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.73

1.17

Cianorte

1.73

Santa Catarina

1.17

Cianorte creates 48% more chances

Season form · 18 home / 6 away

1.78

creates per match

1.50

0.83

allows per match

1.67

creates per match

Cianorte

1.78

Santa Catarina

1.50

allows per match

Cianorte

0.83

Santa Catarina

1.67

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Cianorte+0.00on par

Santa Catarina+0.00on par

Total goals

Over55
Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes57
No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Cianorte ↓

Santa Catarina →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–16%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–010%

1–111%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–110%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

78%22%2.5

55%45%3.5

33%67%4.5

17%83%

Double chance

Cianorte or draw

74%

Cianorte or Santa Catarina

76%

Draw or Santa Catarina

50%

Winning margin

Cianorte wins by 2+

27%

Santa Catarina wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Cianorte 1+ goals

82%

Cianorte 2+ goals

52%

Cianorte 3+ goals

25%

Santa Catarina 1+ goals

69%

Santa Catarina 2+ goals

33%

Santa Catarina 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Cianorte (draw refunded)

66%

Santa Catarina (draw refunded)

34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

46%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Cianorte at home — creates 1.78, concedes 0.83 · 18 matches

Santa Catarina away — creates 1.50, concedes 1.67 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Cianorte attack 1.78 + Santa Catarina defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.73

Santa Catarina attack 1.50 + Cianorte defence 0.83 → ÷2 → 1.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Cianorte scores more

50%

level

24%

Santa Catarina scores more

26%

Cianorte at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Cianorte will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

45'

58'

78'

90'

Cianorte

Santa

Manager: Ferro Rafael

Manager: Betinho