Cianorte 1–1 Mixto: Result & Stats | Serie D

Cianorte

FT

1 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

Mixto

Wesley 89'

Tite 12'

Dionatha 45'

8/17/2025

Serie D · Round of 16Estadio Olimpico Albino Turbay

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

Cianorte45%

×Draw29%

Mixto26%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

CianorteExpected goals in this matchMixto

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.27

0.90

Cianorte

1.27

Mixto

0.90

Cianorte creates 41% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 14 away

1.68

creates per match

1.00

0.79

allows per match

0.86

creates per match

Cianorte

1.68

Mixto

1.00

allows per match

Cianorte

0.79

Mixto

0.86

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Cianorte+0.00on par

Mixto+0.00on par

Total goals

Under63
Over37

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No57
Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Cianorte ↓

Mixto →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–011%

0–110%

0–25%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–015%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–09%

2–18%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

89%11%1.5

64%36%2.5

37%63%3.5

17%83%4.5

7%93%

Double chance

Cianorte or draw

74%

Cianorte or Mixto

71%

Draw or Mixto

55%

Winning margin

Cianorte wins by 2+

20%

Mixto wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Cianorte 1+ goals

72%

Cianorte 2+ goals

36%

Cianorte 3+ goals

14%

Mixto 1+ goals

59%

Mixto 2+ goals

23%

Mixto 3+ goals

6%

Draw no bet

Cianorte (draw refunded)

63%

Mixto (draw refunded)

37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

30%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Cianorte at home — creates 1.68, concedes 0.79 · 19 matches

Mixto away — creates 1.00, concedes 0.86 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Cianorte attack 1.68 + Mixto defence 0.86 → ÷2 → 1.27

Mixto attack 1.00 + Cianorte defence 0.79 → ÷2 → 0.90

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Cianorte scores more

45%

level

29%

Mixto scores more

26%

Cianorte at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Cianorte will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

12'

Tite

45'

Dionatha

89'

Wesley

Cianorte

Mixto

Manager: Renato Peixe

Manager: Lucas Isotton