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Cianorte vs Guarany de Bagé — Serie D 2025

Cianorte
Cianorte
FT
3 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Guarany de Bagé
Guarany de Bagé
Kaua Davi 85'
Carlito Thiago 76'
Ibson 23'
Pedro Rodrigues 39'
4/5/2026Serie DSerie D · Round 1Estadio Olimpico Albino Turbay

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 12+ matches

Cianorte64%
×Draw24%
Guarany de Bagé12%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Cianorte
1.59
Guarany de Bagé
0.52

Cianorte creates 206% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 12 away

creates per match

Cianorte
1.68
Guarany de Bagé
0.25

allows per match

Cianorte
0.79
Guarany de Bagé
1.50

finishing

Cianorte+0.00on par
Guarany de Bagé+0.00on par

Total goals

65%Under
  • Under65
  • Over35

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

68%No
  • No68
  • Yes32

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Cianorte ↓

Guarany de Bagé →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–16%
0–22%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–019%
1–110%
1–23%
1–30%
1–40%
2
2–015%
2–18%
2–22%
2–30%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–14%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–12%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (19%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
62%38%2.5
35%65%3.5
16%84%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Cianorte or draw
88%
Cianorte or Guarany de Bagé
76%
Draw or Guarany de Bagé
36%

Winning margin

Cianorte wins by 2+
35%
Guarany de Bagé wins by 2+
3%

Team goals

Cianorte 1+ goals
80%
Cianorte 2+ goals
47%
Cianorte 3+ goals
21%
Guarany de Bagé 1+ goals
41%
Guarany de Bagé 2+ goals
10%
Guarany de Bagé 3+ goals
2%

Draw no bet

Cianorte (draw refunded)
84%
Guarany de Bagé (draw refunded)
16%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
22%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Cianorte at home — creates 1.68, concedes 0.79 · 19 matches

Guarany de Bagé away — creates 0.25, concedes 1.50 · 12 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Cianorte attack 1.68 + Guarany de Bagé defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.59

Guarany de Bagé attack 0.25 + Cianorte defence 0.79 → ÷2 → 0.52

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 64%?"

Cianorte scores more
64%
level
24%
Guarany de Bagé scores more
12%

Cianorte at 64% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 64% does not mean "Cianorte will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

23'
Ibson
39'
Pedro Rodrigues
76'
Carlito Thiago
85'
Kaua Davi
Cianorte
Guarany
Ferro Rafael
Manager: Ferro Rafael
Gelson Conte
Manager: Gelson Conte

Serie D: Cianorte 3–1 Guarany de Bagé

Cianorte beat Guarany de Bagé 3-1 in Serie D on April 5, 2026.

Goals: Ibson (23'), Pedro Rodrigues (39'), Carlito Thiago (76'), Kaua Davi (85').

The match was played at Estadio Olimpico Albino Turbay in Cianorte.