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Cianorte vs Concórdia — Serie D 2018

Cianorte
Cianorte
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Concórdia
Concórdia
6/1/2024Serie DSerie D · 1st Phase - 6Estádio Municipal Olímpico Albino Turbay

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

Cianorte47%
×Draw32%
Concórdia21%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Cianorte
1.13
Concórdia
0.65

Cianorte creates 74% more chances

Season form · 49 home / 14 away

creates per match

Cianorte
1.18
Concórdia
0.50

allows per match

Cianorte
0.80
Concórdia
1.07

finishing

Cianorte+0.00on par
Concórdia+0.00on par

Total goals

74%Under
  • Under74
  • Over26

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

68%No
  • No68
  • Yes32

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Cianorte ↓

Concórdia →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–017%
0–111%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–019%
1–112%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–17%
2–22%
2–30%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (19%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
83%17%1.5
53%47%2.5
26%74%3.5
11%89%4.5
3%97%

Double chance

Cianorte or draw
79%
Cianorte or Concórdia
68%
Draw or Concórdia
53%

Winning margin

Cianorte wins by 2+
20%
Concórdia wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Cianorte 1+ goals
68%
Cianorte 2+ goals
31%
Cianorte 3+ goals
11%
Concórdia 1+ goals
48%
Concórdia 2+ goals
14%
Concórdia 3+ goals
3%

Draw no bet

Cianorte (draw refunded)
69%
Concórdia (draw refunded)
31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
20%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Cianorte at home — creates 1.18, concedes 0.80 · 49 matches

Concórdia away — creates 0.50, concedes 1.07 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Cianorte attack 1.18 + Concórdia defence 1.07 → ÷2 → 1.13

Concórdia attack 0.50 + Cianorte defence 0.80 → ÷2 → 0.65

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Cianorte scores more
47%
level
32%
Concórdia scores more
21%

Cianorte at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Cianorte will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Cianorte vs Concórdia

Cianorte and Concórdia drew 1-1 in Serie D on June 1, 2024.

The match was played at Estádio Municipal Olímpico Albino Turbay in Cianorte, Paraná.