Cianorte U20 1–2 Independente FSJ U20

Cianorte U20

FT

1 – 2

HT: 1 – 0

Independente FSJ U20

5/4/2024

Paranaense U20 · 1st Stage - 10Estádio Municipal Olímpico Albino Turbay

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Cianorte U2017%

×Draw16%

Independente FSJ U2067%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Cianorte U20Expected goals in this matchIndependente FSJ U20

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.48

2.96

Cianorte U20

1.48

Independente FSJ U20

2.96

Independente FSJ U20 creates 100% more chances

Season form · 11 home / 6 away

1.45

creates per match

4.00

1.91

allows per match

1.50

creates per match

Cianorte U20

1.45

Independente FSJ U20

4.00

allows per match

Cianorte U20

1.91

Independente FSJ U20

1.50

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Cianorte U20+0.00on par

Independente FSJ U20+0.00on par

Total goals

Over81
Under19

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes73
No27

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Cianorte U20 ↓

Independente FSJ U20 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–01%

0–14%

0–25%

0–35%

0–44%

1

1–02%

1–15%

1–28%

1–38%

1–46%

2

2–01%

2–14%

2–26%

2–36%

2–44%

3

3–01%

3–12%

3–23%

3–33%

3–42%

4

4–00%

4–11%

4–21%

4–31%

4–41%

Most likely 1–2 (8%) · grid covers 83% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

99%1%1.5

93%7%2.5

81%19%3.5

64%36%4.5

44%56%

Double chance

Cianorte U20 or draw

33%

Cianorte U20 or Independente FSJ U20

84%

Draw or Independente FSJ U20

83%

Winning margin

Cianorte U20 wins by 2+

7%

Independente FSJ U20 wins by 2+

47%

Team goals

Cianorte U20 1+ goals

77%

Cianorte U20 2+ goals

43%

Cianorte U20 3+ goals

19%

Independente FSJ U20 1+ goals

95%

Independente FSJ U20 2+ goals

79%

Independente FSJ U20 3+ goals

55%

Draw no bet

Cianorte U20 (draw refunded)

20%

Independente FSJ U20 (draw refunded)

80%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

68%

Both score & under 3

5%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Cianorte U20 at home — creates 1.45, concedes 1.91 · 11 matches

Independente FSJ U20 away — creates 4.00, concedes 1.50 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Cianorte U20 attack 1.45 + Independente FSJ U20 defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.48

Independente FSJ U20 attack 4.00 + Cianorte U20 defence 1.91 → ÷2 → 2.96

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 67%?"

Cianorte U20 scores more

17%

level

16%

Independente FSJ U20 scores more

67%

Independente FSJ U20 at 67% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 67% does not mean "Independente FSJ U20 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff