Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Cianorte U20 vs Hope Internacional U20 — Paranaense U20 2024

Cianorte U20
Cianorte U20
FT
0 – 0
Hope Internacional U20
Hope Internacional U20
3/15/2024Paranaense U20Paranaense U20 · 1st Stage - 3CT Universidade Positivo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 11+ matches

Cianorte U2041%
×Draw23%
Hope Internacional U2035%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Cianorte U20
1.67
Hope Internacional U20
1.52

Cianorte U20 creates 10% more chances

Season form · 11 home / 21 away

creates per match

Cianorte U20
1.45
Hope Internacional U20
1.14

allows per match

Cianorte U20
1.91
Hope Internacional U20
1.90

finishing

Cianorte U20+0.00on par
Hope Internacional U20+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Over
  • Over62
  • Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

63%Yes
  • Yes63
  • No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Cianorte U20 ↓

Hope Internacional U20 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–16%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–110%
1–28%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
62%38%3.5
39%61%4.5
22%78%

Double chance

Cianorte U20 or draw
65%
Cianorte U20 or Hope Internacional U20
77%
Draw or Hope Internacional U20
59%

Winning margin

Cianorte U20 wins by 2+
21%
Hope Internacional U20 wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Cianorte U20 1+ goals
81%
Cianorte U20 2+ goals
50%
Cianorte U20 3+ goals
23%
Hope Internacional U20 1+ goals
78%
Hope Internacional U20 2+ goals
45%
Hope Internacional U20 3+ goals
20%

Draw no bet

Cianorte U20 (draw refunded)
54%
Hope Internacional U20 (draw refunded)
46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
53%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Cianorte U20 at home — creates 1.45, concedes 1.91 · 11 matches

Hope Internacional U20 away — creates 1.14, concedes 1.90 · 21 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Cianorte U20 attack 1.45 + Hope Internacional U20 defence 1.90 → ÷2 → 1.67

Hope Internacional U20 attack 1.14 + Cianorte U20 defence 1.91 → ÷2 → 1.52

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Cianorte U20 scores more
41%
level
23%
Hope Internacional U20 scores more
35%

Cianorte U20 at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Cianorte U20 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Cianorte U20 vs Hope Internacional U20

Cianorte U20 and Hope Internacional U20 drew 0-0 in Paranaense U20 on March 15, 2024.

The match was played at CT Universidade Positivo in Cianorte, Paraná.