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Cianorte U20 vs CE União U20 — Paranaense U20 2024

Cianorte U20
Cianorte U20
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
CE União U20
CE União U20
3/21/2026Paranaense U20Paranaense U20 · Round 4

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Cianorte U2053%
×Draw21%
CE União U2026%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Cianorte U20
2.14
CE União U20
1.46

Cianorte U20 creates 47% more chances

Season form · 11 home / 6 away

creates per match

Cianorte U20
1.45
CE União U20
1.00

allows per match

Cianorte U20
1.91
CE União U20
2.83

finishing

Cianorte U20+0.00on par
CE União U20+0.00on par

Total goals

70%Over
  • Over70
  • Under30

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

68%Yes
  • Yes68
  • No32

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Cianorte U20 ↓

CE União U20 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–14%
0–23%
0–31%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–19%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–17%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–14%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
87%13%2.5
70%30%3.5
48%52%4.5
29%71%

Double chance

Cianorte U20 or draw
74%
Cianorte U20 or CE União U20
79%
Draw or CE União U20
47%

Winning margin

Cianorte U20 wins by 2+
32%
CE União U20 wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Cianorte U20 1+ goals
88%
Cianorte U20 2+ goals
63%
Cianorte U20 3+ goals
36%
CE União U20 1+ goals
77%
CE União U20 2+ goals
43%
CE União U20 3+ goals
18%

Draw no bet

Cianorte U20 (draw refunded)
67%
CE União U20 (draw refunded)
33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
59%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Cianorte U20 at home — creates 1.45, concedes 1.91 · 11 matches

CE União U20 away — creates 1.00, concedes 2.83 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Cianorte U20 attack 1.45 + CE União U20 defence 2.83 → ÷2 → 2.14

CE União U20 attack 1.00 + Cianorte U20 defence 1.91 → ÷2 → 1.46

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Cianorte U20 scores more
53%
level
21%
CE União U20 scores more
26%

Cianorte U20 at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Cianorte U20 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Cianorte U20 vs CE União U20

Cianorte U20 beat CE União U20 1-0 in Paranaense U20 on March 21, 2026.