Cianorte U20 0–1 Araucaria U20: Result & Stats

Cianorte U20

FT

0 – 1

Araucaria U20

3/2/2024

Paranaense U20 · 1st Stage - 1CT Universidade Positivo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 11+ matches

Cianorte U2038%

×Draw24%

Araucaria U2038%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Cianorte U20Expected goals in this matchAraucaria U20

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.58

1.57

Cianorte U20

1.58

Araucaria U20

1.57

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 11 home / 25 away

1.45

creates per match

1.24

1.91

allows per match

1.72

creates per match

Cianorte U20

1.45

Araucaria U20

1.24

allows per match

Cianorte U20

1.91

Araucaria U20

1.72

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Cianorte U20+0.00on par

Araucaria U20+0.00on par

Total goals

Over61
Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes63
No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Cianorte U20 ↓

Araucaria U20 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–17%

0–25%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–07%

1–111%

1–28%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–27%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

82%18%2.5

61%39%3.5

38%62%4.5

21%79%

Double chance

Cianorte U20 or draw

62%

Cianorte U20 or Araucaria U20

76%

Draw or Araucaria U20

62%

Winning margin

Cianorte U20 wins by 2+

19%

Araucaria U20 wins by 2+

19%

Team goals

Cianorte U20 1+ goals

79%

Cianorte U20 2+ goals

47%

Cianorte U20 3+ goals

21%

Araucaria U20 1+ goals

79%

Araucaria U20 2+ goals

46%

Araucaria U20 3+ goals

21%

Draw no bet

Cianorte U20 (draw refunded)

50%

Araucaria U20 (draw refunded)

50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

52%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Cianorte U20 at home — creates 1.45, concedes 1.91 · 11 matches

Araucaria U20 away — creates 1.24, concedes 1.72 · 25 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Cianorte U20 attack 1.45 + Araucaria U20 defence 1.72 → ÷2 → 1.58

Araucaria U20 attack 1.24 + Cianorte U20 defence 1.91 → ÷2 → 1.57

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Cianorte U20 scores more

38%

level

24%

Araucaria U20 scores more

38%

Cianorte U20 at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Cianorte U20 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff