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CI Kamsar vs ASM Sangarédi — League #378 2026

CI Kamsar
CI Kamsar
FT
3 – 1
ASM Sangarédi
ASM Sangarédi
6/19/2025League #378League #378 · Round 23Stade de l'Amitié

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

CI Kamsar48%
×Draw24%
ASM Sangarédi28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

CI Kamsar
1.75
ASM Sangarédi
1.29

CI Kamsar creates 36% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 3 away

creates per match

CI Kamsar
1.50
ASM Sangarédi
1.33

allows per match

CI Kamsar
1.25
ASM Sangarédi
2.00

finishing

CI Kamsar+0.00on par
ASM Sangarédi+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Over
  • Over58
  • Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

60%Yes
  • Yes60
  • No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

CI Kamsar ↓

ASM Sangarédi →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–16%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
58%42%3.5
36%64%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

CI Kamsar or draw
72%
CI Kamsar or ASM Sangarédi
76%
Draw or ASM Sangarédi
52%

Winning margin

CI Kamsar wins by 2+
26%
ASM Sangarédi wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

CI Kamsar 1+ goals
83%
CI Kamsar 2+ goals
52%
CI Kamsar 3+ goals
25%
ASM Sangarédi 1+ goals
72%
ASM Sangarédi 2+ goals
37%
ASM Sangarédi 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

CI Kamsar (draw refunded)
63%
ASM Sangarédi (draw refunded)
37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
49%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

CI Kamsar at home — creates 1.50, concedes 1.25 · 4 matches

ASM Sangarédi away — creates 1.33, concedes 2.00 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

CI Kamsar attack 1.50 + ASM Sangarédi defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.75

ASM Sangarédi attack 1.33 + CI Kamsar defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.29

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

CI Kamsar scores more
48%
level
24%
ASM Sangarédi scores more
28%

CI Kamsar at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "CI Kamsar will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: CI Kamsar vs ASM Sangarédi

CI Kamsar beat ASM Sangarédi 3-1 in League #378 on June 19, 2025.

The match was played at Stade de l'Amitié in Kamsar.