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Churchill Brothers vs Dempo — I-League 2019

Churchill Brothers
Churchill Brothers
FT
2 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Dempo
Dempo
12/18/2024I-LeagueI-League · Round 6Raia Panchayat Ground

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 18+ matches

Churchill Brothers48%
×Draw26%
Dempo26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Churchill Brothers
1.52
Dempo
1.04

Churchill Brothers creates 46% more chances

Season form · 58 home / 18 away

creates per match

Churchill Brothers
1.72
Dempo
1.00

allows per match

Churchill Brothers
1.09
Dempo
1.33

finishing

Churchill Brothers+0.00on par
Dempo+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Under
  • Under53
  • Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Churchill Brothers ↓

Dempo →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–18%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
47%53%3.5
25%75%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Churchill Brothers or draw
74%
Churchill Brothers or Dempo
74%
Draw or Dempo
52%

Winning margin

Churchill Brothers wins by 2+
24%
Dempo wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Churchill Brothers 1+ goals
78%
Churchill Brothers 2+ goals
45%
Churchill Brothers 3+ goals
20%
Dempo 1+ goals
65%
Dempo 2+ goals
28%
Dempo 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Churchill Brothers (draw refunded)
65%
Dempo (draw refunded)
35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Churchill Brothers at home — creates 1.72, concedes 1.09 · 58 matches

Dempo away — creates 1.00, concedes 1.33 · 18 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Churchill Brothers attack 1.72 + Dempo defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.52

Dempo attack 1.00 + Churchill Brothers defence 1.09 → ÷2 → 1.04

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Churchill Brothers scores more
48%
level
26%
Dempo scores more
26%

Churchill Brothers at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Churchill Brothers will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

I-League: Churchill Brothers 2–0 Dempo

Churchill Brothers beat Dempo 2-0 in I-League on December 18, 2024.

The match was played at Raia Panchayat Ground in Raia.