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Chuncheon vs Yangju Citizen — FA Cup 2019

Chuncheon
Chuncheon
FT
2 – 1
Yangju Citizen
Yangju Citizen
2/19/2022FA CupFA Cup · 1st RoundChuncheon Songam Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Chuncheon53%
×Draw22%
Yangju Citizen25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Chuncheon
1.92
Yangju Citizen
1.25

Chuncheon creates 54% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 6 away

creates per match

Chuncheon
2.00
Yangju Citizen
1.17

allows per match

Chuncheon
1.33
Yangju Citizen
1.83

finishing

Chuncheon+0.00on par
Yangju Citizen+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Over
  • Over61
  • Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

61%Yes
  • Yes61
  • No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Chuncheon ↓

Yangju Citizen →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–15%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–08%
1–110%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
61%39%3.5
39%61%4.5
21%79%

Double chance

Chuncheon or draw
75%
Chuncheon or Yangju Citizen
78%
Draw or Yangju Citizen
47%

Winning margin

Chuncheon wins by 2+
30%
Yangju Citizen wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Chuncheon 1+ goals
85%
Chuncheon 2+ goals
57%
Chuncheon 3+ goals
30%
Yangju Citizen 1+ goals
71%
Yangju Citizen 2+ goals
36%
Yangju Citizen 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Chuncheon (draw refunded)
68%
Yangju Citizen (draw refunded)
32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
51%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Chuncheon at home — creates 2.00, concedes 1.33 · 6 matches

Yangju Citizen away — creates 1.17, concedes 1.83 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Chuncheon attack 2.00 + Yangju Citizen defence 1.83 → ÷2 → 1.92

Yangju Citizen attack 1.17 + Chuncheon defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Chuncheon scores more
53%
level
22%
Yangju Citizen scores more
25%

Chuncheon at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Chuncheon will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

FA Cup: Chuncheon 2–1 Yangju Citizen

Chuncheon beat Yangju Citizen 2-1 in FA Cup on February 19, 2022.

The match was played at Chuncheon Songam Stadium in Chuncheon.