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Chuncheon vs Mokpo City — K3 League 2026

Chuncheon
Chuncheon
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Mokpo City
Mokpo City
Unknown 82'
4/26/2026K3 LeagueK3 League · Round 8

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 52+ matches

Chuncheon39%
×Draw26%
Mokpo City35%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 584,459 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Chuncheon
1.35
Mokpo City
1.27

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 52 home / 112 away

creates per match

Chuncheon
1.25
Mokpo City
1.13

allows per match

Chuncheon
1.42
Mokpo City
1.46

finishing

Chuncheon+0.00on par
Mokpo City+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Under
  • Under51
  • Over49

Close call

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Chuncheon ↓

Mokpo City →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–19%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
49%51%3.5
27%73%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Chuncheon or draw
65%
Chuncheon or Mokpo City
74%
Draw or Mokpo City
61%

Winning margin

Chuncheon wins by 2+
18%
Mokpo City wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Chuncheon 1+ goals
74%
Chuncheon 2+ goals
39%
Chuncheon 3+ goals
15%
Mokpo City 1+ goals
72%
Mokpo City 2+ goals
36%
Mokpo City 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Chuncheon (draw refunded)
53%
Mokpo City (draw refunded)
47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Chuncheon at home — creates 1.25, concedes 1.42 · 52 matches

Mokpo City away — creates 1.13, concedes 1.46 · 112 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Chuncheon attack 1.25 + Mokpo City defence 1.46 → ÷2 → 1.35

Mokpo City attack 1.13 + Chuncheon defence 1.42 → ÷2 → 1.27

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Chuncheon scores more
39%
level
26%
Mokpo City scores more
35%

Chuncheon at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Chuncheon will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

82'
Chuncheon
Mokpo
Jeong Seon-woo
Manager: Jeong Seon-woo
Cho Duk-Jae
Manager: Cho Duk-Jae

K3 League: Chuncheon 0–0 Mokpo City

Chuncheon and Mokpo City drew 0-0 in K3 League on April 26, 2026.

Goals: ? (82').