Chuncheon 0–1 Gimhae City: Result & Stats

Chuncheon

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Gimhae City

8/31/2025

K3 League · Round 22Chuncheon Songam Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 52+ matches

Chuncheon30%

×Draw27%

Gimhae City43%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

ChuncheonExpected goals in this matchGimhae City

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.08

1.36

Chuncheon

1.08

Gimhae City

1.36

Gimhae City creates 26% more chances

Season form · 52 home / 98 away

1.25

creates per match

1.31

1.42

allows per match

0.91

creates per match

Chuncheon

1.25

Gimhae City

1.31

allows per match

Chuncheon

1.42

Gimhae City

0.91

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Chuncheon+0.00on par

Gimhae City+0.00on par

Total goals

Under56
Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No51
Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Chuncheon ↓

Gimhae City →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–112%

0–28%

0–34%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–113%

1–29%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–05%

2–17%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–12%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

70%30%2.5

44%56%3.5

23%77%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Chuncheon or draw

57%

Chuncheon or Gimhae City

73%

Draw or Gimhae City

70%

Winning margin

Chuncheon wins by 2+

12%

Gimhae City wins by 2+

20%

Team goals

Chuncheon 1+ goals

66%

Chuncheon 2+ goals

29%

Chuncheon 3+ goals

10%

Gimhae City 1+ goals

74%

Gimhae City 2+ goals

39%

Gimhae City 3+ goals

16%

Draw no bet

Chuncheon (draw refunded)

41%

Gimhae City (draw refunded)

59%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

36%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Chuncheon at home — creates 1.25, concedes 1.42 · 52 matches

Gimhae City away — creates 1.31, concedes 0.91 · 98 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Chuncheon attack 1.25 + Gimhae City defence 0.91 → ÷2 → 1.08

Gimhae City attack 1.31 + Chuncheon defence 1.42 → ÷2 → 1.36

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Chuncheon scores more

30%

level

27%

Gimhae City scores more

43%

Gimhae City at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Gimhae City will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff