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Chrudim vs Vyškov — FNL 2019

Chrudim
Chrudim
FT
3 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Vyškov
Vyškov
4/16/2025FNLFNL · Round 23Stadion Za Vodojemem

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 60+ matches

Chrudim40%
×Draw26%
Vyškov34%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Chrudim
1.38
Vyškov
1.24

Chrudim creates 11% more chances

Season form · 104 home / 60 away

creates per match

Chrudim
1.54
Vyškov
1.17

allows per match

Chrudim
1.31
Vyškov
1.22

finishing

Chrudim+0.00on par
Vyškov+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Under
  • Under51
  • Over49

Close call

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Chrudim ↓

Vyškov →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–19%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
49%51%3.5
27%73%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Chrudim or draw
66%
Chrudim or Vyškov
74%
Draw or Vyškov
60%

Winning margin

Chrudim wins by 2+
19%
Vyškov wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Chrudim 1+ goals
75%
Chrudim 2+ goals
40%
Chrudim 3+ goals
16%
Vyškov 1+ goals
71%
Vyškov 2+ goals
35%
Vyškov 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Chrudim (draw refunded)
54%
Vyškov (draw refunded)
46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Chrudim at home — creates 1.54, concedes 1.31 · 104 matches

Vyškov away — creates 1.17, concedes 1.22 · 60 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Chrudim attack 1.54 + Vyškov defence 1.22 → ÷2 → 1.38

Vyškov attack 1.17 + Chrudim defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 1.24

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Chrudim scores more
40%
level
26%
Vyškov scores more
34%

Chrudim at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Chrudim will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

FNL: Chrudim 3–0 Vyškov

Chrudim beat Vyškov 3-0 in FNL on April 16, 2025.

The match was played at Stadion Za Vodojemem in Chrudim.