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Chrudim II vs Trutnov — 4. liga - Divizie C 2019

Chrudim II
Chrudim II
FT
6 – 1
HT: 4 – 1
Trutnov
Trutnov
3/16/20244. liga - Divizie C4. liga - Divizie C · Division C - 18Letní stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 45+ matches

Chrudim II48%
×Draw21%
Trutnov31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Chrudim II
2.08
Trutnov
1.63

Chrudim II creates 28% more chances

Season form · 45 home / 72 away

creates per match

Chrudim II
2.04
Trutnov
1.65

allows per match

Chrudim II
1.60
Trutnov
2.11

finishing

Chrudim II+0.00on par
Trutnov+0.00on par

Total goals

71%Over
  • Over71
  • Under29

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

70%Yes
  • Yes70
  • No30

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Chrudim II ↓

Trutnov →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–14%
0–23%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–05%
1–18%
1–27%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–19%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–25%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–23%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
88%12%2.5
71%29%3.5
50%50%4.5
31%69%

Double chance

Chrudim II or draw
69%
Chrudim II or Trutnov
79%
Draw or Trutnov
52%

Winning margin

Chrudim II wins by 2+
28%
Trutnov wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Chrudim II 1+ goals
87%
Chrudim II 2+ goals
61%
Chrudim II 3+ goals
34%
Trutnov 1+ goals
80%
Trutnov 2+ goals
48%
Trutnov 3+ goals
22%

Draw no bet

Chrudim II (draw refunded)
61%
Trutnov (draw refunded)
39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
62%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Chrudim II at home — creates 2.04, concedes 1.60 · 45 matches

Trutnov away — creates 1.65, concedes 2.11 · 72 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Chrudim II attack 2.04 + Trutnov defence 2.11 → ÷2 → 2.08

Trutnov attack 1.65 + Chrudim II defence 1.60 → ÷2 → 1.63

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Chrudim II scores more
48%
level
21%
Trutnov scores more
31%

Chrudim II at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Chrudim II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Chrudim II vs Trutnov

Chrudim II beat Trutnov 6-1 in 4. liga - Divizie C on March 16, 2024.

The match was played at Letní stadion in Chrudim.