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Chrudim II vs Cidlina Novy Bydzov — 4. liga - Divizie C 2019

Chrudim II
Chrudim II
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Cidlina Novy Bydzov
Cidlina Novy Bydzov
9/3/20234. liga - Divizie C4. liga - Divizie C · Division C - 5Stadion Za Vodojemem

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

Chrudim II50%
×Draw22%
Cidlina Novy Bydzov28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Chrudim II
1.98
Cidlina Novy Bydzov
1.45

Chrudim II creates 37% more chances

Season form · 45 home / 30 away

creates per match

Chrudim II
2.04
Cidlina Novy Bydzov
1.30

allows per match

Chrudim II
1.60
Cidlina Novy Bydzov
1.93

finishing

Chrudim II+0.00on par
Cidlina Novy Bydzov+0.00on par

Total goals

66%Over
  • Over66
  • Under34

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

66%Yes
  • Yes66
  • No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Chrudim II ↓

Cidlina Novy Bydzov →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–15%
0–23%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–19%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
86%14%2.5
66%34%3.5
45%55%4.5
26%74%

Double chance

Chrudim II or draw
72%
Chrudim II or Cidlina Novy Bydzov
78%
Draw or Cidlina Novy Bydzov
50%

Winning margin

Chrudim II wins by 2+
28%
Cidlina Novy Bydzov wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Chrudim II 1+ goals
86%
Chrudim II 2+ goals
59%
Chrudim II 3+ goals
31%
Cidlina Novy Bydzov 1+ goals
77%
Cidlina Novy Bydzov 2+ goals
42%
Cidlina Novy Bydzov 3+ goals
18%

Draw no bet

Chrudim II (draw refunded)
64%
Cidlina Novy Bydzov (draw refunded)
36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
57%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Chrudim II at home — creates 2.04, concedes 1.60 · 45 matches

Cidlina Novy Bydzov away — creates 1.30, concedes 1.93 · 30 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Chrudim II attack 2.04 + Cidlina Novy Bydzov defence 1.93 → ÷2 → 1.98

Cidlina Novy Bydzov attack 1.30 + Chrudim II defence 1.60 → ÷2 → 1.45

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Chrudim II scores more
50%
level
22%
Cidlina Novy Bydzov scores more
28%

Chrudim II at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Chrudim II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

4. liga - Divizie C: Chrudim II 1–1 Cidlina Novy Bydzov

Chrudim II and Cidlina Novy Bydzov drew 1-1 in 4. liga - Divizie C on September 3, 2023.

The match was played at Stadion Za Vodojemem in Chrudim.