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Chrobry Głogów vs Znicz Pruszków — I Liga 2018

Chrobry Głogów
Chrobry Głogów
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Znicz Pruszków
Znicz Pruszków
11/6/2023I LigaI Liga · Round 14Stadion GOS

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 51+ matches

Chrobry Głogów43%
×Draw27%
Znicz Pruszków30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Chrobry Głogów
1.34
Znicz Pruszków
1.08

Chrobry Głogów creates 24% more chances

Season form · 136 home / 51 away

creates per match

Chrobry Głogów
1.25
Znicz Pruszków
1.10

allows per match

Chrobry Głogów
1.06
Znicz Pruszków
1.43

finishing

Chrobry Głogów+0.00on par
Znicz Pruszków+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Under
  • Under56
  • Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Chrobry Głogów ↓

Znicz Pruszków →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–110%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
44%56%3.5
22%78%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Chrobry Głogów or draw
70%
Chrobry Głogów or Znicz Pruszków
73%
Draw or Znicz Pruszków
57%

Winning margin

Chrobry Głogów wins by 2+
20%
Znicz Pruszków wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Chrobry Głogów 1+ goals
74%
Chrobry Głogów 2+ goals
39%
Chrobry Głogów 3+ goals
15%
Znicz Pruszków 1+ goals
66%
Znicz Pruszków 2+ goals
29%
Znicz Pruszków 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Chrobry Głogów (draw refunded)
59%
Znicz Pruszków (draw refunded)
41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Chrobry Głogów at home — creates 1.25, concedes 1.06 · 136 matches

Znicz Pruszków away — creates 1.10, concedes 1.43 · 51 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Chrobry Głogów attack 1.25 + Znicz Pruszków defence 1.43 → ÷2 → 1.34

Znicz Pruszków attack 1.10 + Chrobry Głogów defence 1.06 → ÷2 → 1.08

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Chrobry Głogów scores more
43%
level
27%
Znicz Pruszków scores more
30%

Chrobry Głogów at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Chrobry Głogów will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

I Liga: Chrobry Głogów 1–0 Znicz Pruszków

Chrobry Głogów beat Znicz Pruszków 1-0 in I Liga on November 6, 2023.

The match was played at Stadion GOS in Głogów.