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Chrobry Głogów vs Zagłębie Lubin II — Friendlies Clubs 2026

Chrobry Głogów
Chrobry Głogów
FT
3 – 0
HT: 2 – 0
Zagłębie Lubin II
Zagłębie Lubin II
M. Bougaidis 47'
S. Bartlewicz 24'
S. Lewkot 23'
1/18/2025Friendlies ClubsFriendlies Clubs · Club Friendlies 3Bocznym Boisku Chrobry Głogów

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Chrobry Głogów55%
×Draw20%
Zagłębie Lubin II25%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Chrobry Głogów
2.30
Zagłębie Lubin II
1.53

Chrobry Głogów creates 50% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 3 away

creates per match

Chrobry Głogów
1.94
Zagłębie Lubin II
2.00

allows per match

Chrobry Głogów
1.06
Zagłębie Lubin II
2.67

finishing

Chrobry Głogów+0.00on par
Zagłębie Lubin II+0.00on par

Total goals

73%Over
  • Over73
  • Under27

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

70%Yes
  • Yes70
  • No30

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Chrobry Głogów ↓

Zagłębie Lubin II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–13%
0–23%
0–31%
0–41%
1
1–05%
1–18%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–17%
3–25%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–14%
4–23%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
89%11%2.5
73%27%3.5
53%47%4.5
33%67%

Double chance

Chrobry Głogów or draw
75%
Chrobry Głogów or Zagłębie Lubin II
80%
Draw or Zagłębie Lubin II
45%

Winning margin

Chrobry Głogów wins by 2+
34%
Zagłębie Lubin II wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Chrobry Głogów 1+ goals
90%
Chrobry Głogów 2+ goals
67%
Chrobry Głogów 3+ goals
40%
Zagłębie Lubin II 1+ goals
78%
Zagłębie Lubin II 2+ goals
45%
Zagłębie Lubin II 3+ goals
20%

Draw no bet

Chrobry Głogów (draw refunded)
68%
Zagłębie Lubin II (draw refunded)
32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
63%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Chrobry Głogów at home — creates 1.94, concedes 1.06 · 17 matches

Zagłębie Lubin II away — creates 2.00, concedes 2.67 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Chrobry Głogów attack 1.94 + Zagłębie Lubin II defence 2.67 → ÷2 → 2.30

Zagłębie Lubin II attack 2.00 + Chrobry Głogów defence 1.06 → ÷2 → 1.53

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Chrobry Głogów scores more
55%
level
20%
Zagłębie Lubin II scores more
25%

Chrobry Głogów at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Chrobry Głogów will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

23'
S. Lewkot
24'
S. Bartlewicz
47'
M. Bougaidis
Chrobry
Zagłębie
Ł. Becella
Manager: Ł. Becella
P. Sochacki
Manager: P. Sochacki

Friendlies Clubs: Chrobry Głogów 3–0 Zagłębie Lubin II

Chrobry Głogów beat Zagłębie Lubin II 3-0 in Friendlies Clubs on January 18, 2025.

Goals: S. Lewkot (23'), S. Bartlewicz (24'), M. Bougaidis (47').

The match was played at Bocznym Boisku Chrobry Głogów in Głogów.