Chrobry Głogów 1–2 Wieczysta Kraków: Result & Stats

Chrobry Głogów

FT

1 – 2

HT: 1 – 2

Wieczysta Kraków

S. Bartlewicz 17'

R. Mandrysz 44' (OG)

Miki Villar 34'

11/22/2025

I Liga · Round 17Stadion Chrobrego

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Chrobry Głogów28%

×Draw23%

Wieczysta Kraków50%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Chrobry GłogówExpected goals in this matchWieczysta Kraków

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.35

1.88

Chrobry Głogów

1.35

Wieczysta Kraków

1.88

Wieczysta Kraków creates 39% more chances

Season form · 39 home / 17 away

1.36

creates per match

2.24

1.51

allows per match

1.35

creates per match

Chrobry Głogów

1.36

Wieczysta Kraków

2.24

allows per match

Chrobry Głogów

1.51

Wieczysta Kraków

1.35

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Chrobry Głogów+0.00on par

Wieczysta Kraków+0.00on par

Total goals

Over62
Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes63
No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Chrobry Głogów ↓

Wieczysta Kraków →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–17%

0–27%

0–34%

0–42%

1

1–05%

1–110%

1–29%

1–36%

1–43%

2

2–04%

2–17%

2–26%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

83%17%2.5

62%38%3.5

40%60%4.5

22%78%

Double chance

Chrobry Głogów or draw

50%

Chrobry Głogów or Wieczysta Kraków

77%

Draw or Wieczysta Kraków

72%

Winning margin

Chrobry Głogów wins by 2+

12%

Wieczysta Kraków wins by 2+

28%

Team goals

Chrobry Głogów 1+ goals

74%

Chrobry Głogów 2+ goals

39%

Chrobry Głogów 3+ goals

15%

Wieczysta Kraków 1+ goals

85%

Wieczysta Kraków 2+ goals

56%

Wieczysta Kraków 3+ goals

29%

Draw no bet

Chrobry Głogów (draw refunded)

36%

Wieczysta Kraków (draw refunded)

64%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

53%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Chrobry Głogów at home — creates 1.36, concedes 1.51 · 39 matches

Wieczysta Kraków away — creates 2.24, concedes 1.35 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Chrobry Głogów attack 1.36 + Wieczysta Kraków defence 1.35 → ÷2 → 1.35

Wieczysta Kraków attack 2.24 + Chrobry Głogów defence 1.51 → ÷2 → 1.88

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Chrobry Głogów scores more

28%

level

23%

Wieczysta Kraków scores more

50%

Wieczysta Kraków at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Wieczysta Kraków will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

17'

S. Bartlewicz

28'

M. Pazdan

34'

Miki Villar

44'

R. MandryszOwn goal

56'

M. Trabka← M. Gajos

56'

K. Pestka← R. Pietrzak

64'

P. Janczukowicz← S. Strozik

64'

K. Ibe-Torti← S. Bartlewicz

64'

M. Ozimek← K. Laskowski

69'

T. Swedrowski← Miki Villar

78'

P. Tupaj← M. Kozajda

85'

K. Grzelak← S. Lewkot

87'

K. Fila← P. Pusic

87'

Rafa Lopes← S. Feiertag

Chrobry

Wieczysta

1

17

89

2

6

▼

Pietrzak

7

▼

Gajos

12

Piazon

70

▼

Pusic

29

Lysiak

23

⚽

▼

Villar

18

▼

Feiertag

99

Arndt

8

Gric

21

▼

Kozajda

18

Mazur

80

Tabis

27

▼

Laskowski

23

▼

Lewkot

30

⚽

▼

Bartlewic

15

Nowakowsk

16

🥅

Mandrysz

11

▼

Strozik

Manager: Lukasz Becella

64'▲P. Janczukowicz←▼S. Strozik

64'▲K. Ibe-Torti←▼S. Bartlewicz

64'▲M. Ozimek←▼K. Laskowski

78'▲P. Tupaj←▼M. Kozajda

85'▲K. Grzelak←▼S. Lewkot

Chrobry Głogów substitutes

95Lenarcik96Szarek10Janczukowicz55Tworzydlo17Ibe-Torti29Tupaj24Grzelak7Bonecki9Ozimek

Manager: Kazimierz Moskal

56'▲M. Trabka←▼M. Gajos

56'▲K. Pestka←▼R. Pietrzak

69'▲T. Swedrowski←▼Miki Villar

87'▲K. Fila←▼P. Pusic

87'▲Rafa Lopes←▼S. Feiertag

Wieczysta Kraków substitutes

28Soberka4Fila8Swedrowski21Lopes19Trabka27Carlitos30Donkor44Szymonowicz33Pestka