Chrobry Głogów 3–0 Świt Skolwin: Result & Stats

Chrobry Głogów

FT

3 – 0

Świt Skolwin

2/22/2020

Friendlies Clubs · Club Friendlies 3MZKS Głogów Boisko piłkarskie

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 8+ matches

Chrobry Głogów63%

×Draw19%

Świt Skolwin18%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Chrobry GłogówExpected goals in this matchŚwit Skolwin

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.41

1.22

Chrobry Głogów

2.41

Świt Skolwin

1.22

Chrobry Głogów creates 98% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 8 away

1.94

creates per match

1.38

1.06

allows per match

2.88

creates per match

Chrobry Głogów

1.94

Świt Skolwin

1.38

allows per match

Chrobry Głogów

1.06

Świt Skolwin

2.88

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Chrobry Głogów+0.00on par

Świt Skolwin+0.00on par

Total goals

Over70
Under30

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes64
No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Chrobry Głogów ↓

Świt Skolwin →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–13%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–06%

1–18%

1–25%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–110%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–06%

3–18%

3–25%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–04%

4–15%

4–23%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

88%12%2.5

70%30%3.5

48%52%4.5

29%71%

Double chance

Chrobry Głogów or draw

82%

Chrobry Głogów or Świt Skolwin

81%

Draw or Świt Skolwin

37%

Winning margin

Chrobry Głogów wins by 2+

41%

Świt Skolwin wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

Chrobry Głogów 1+ goals

91%

Chrobry Głogów 2+ goals

69%

Chrobry Głogów 3+ goals

43%

Świt Skolwin 1+ goals

70%

Świt Skolwin 2+ goals

34%

Świt Skolwin 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Chrobry Głogów (draw refunded)

78%

Świt Skolwin (draw refunded)

22%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

56%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Chrobry Głogów at home — creates 1.94, concedes 1.06 · 17 matches

Świt Skolwin away — creates 1.38, concedes 2.88 · 8 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Chrobry Głogów attack 1.94 + Świt Skolwin defence 2.88 → ÷2 → 2.41

Świt Skolwin attack 1.38 + Chrobry Głogów defence 1.06 → ÷2 → 1.22

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 63%?"

Chrobry Głogów scores more

63%

level

19%

Świt Skolwin scores more

18%

Chrobry Głogów at 63% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 63% does not mean "Chrobry Głogów will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff