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Chrobry Głogów vs Polonia Warszawa — I Liga 2025

Chrobry Głogów
Chrobry Głogów
Preview
15:00
Polonia Warszawa
Polonia Warszawa
4/3/2027I LigaI Liga · Round 26Stadion Chrobrego
Big match
42%
Polonia Warszawa
model favours
34%24%42%

Polonia Warszawa score first in only 8% of matches

brightest fact of this match

1–1
likely score
60%
over 2.5 goals
62%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 24+ matches

Chrobry Głogów34%
×Draw24%
Polonia Warszawa42%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Chrobry Głogów
1.46
Polonia Warszawa
1.63

Polonia Warszawa creates 12% more chances

Season form · 41 home / 24 away

creates per match

Chrobry Głogów
1.39
Polonia Warszawa
1.71

allows per match

Chrobry Głogów
1.54
Polonia Warszawa
1.54

finishing

Chrobry Głogów+0.00on par
Polonia Warszawa+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Over
  • Over60
  • Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

62%Yes
  • Yes62
  • No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Chrobry Głogów ↓

Polonia Warszawa →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–17%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–26%
2–34%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
60%40%3.5
37%63%4.5
20%80%

Double chance

Chrobry Głogów or draw
58%
Chrobry Głogów or Polonia Warszawa
76%
Draw or Polonia Warszawa
66%

Winning margin

Chrobry Głogów wins by 2+
16%
Polonia Warszawa wins by 2+
21%

Team goals

Chrobry Głogów 1+ goals
77%
Chrobry Głogów 2+ goals
43%
Chrobry Głogów 3+ goals
18%
Polonia Warszawa 1+ goals
80%
Polonia Warszawa 2+ goals
48%
Polonia Warszawa 3+ goals
22%

Draw no bet

Chrobry Głogów (draw refunded)
45%
Polonia Warszawa (draw refunded)
55%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
51%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Chrobry Głogów at home — creates 1.39, concedes 1.54 · 41 matches

Polonia Warszawa away — creates 1.71, concedes 1.54 · 24 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Chrobry Głogów attack 1.39 + Polonia Warszawa defence 1.54 → ÷2 → 1.46

Polonia Warszawa attack 1.71 + Chrobry Głogów defence 1.54 → ÷2 → 1.63

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Chrobry Głogów scores more
34%
level
24%
Polonia Warszawa scores more
42%

Polonia Warszawa at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Polonia Warszawa will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • Chrobry Głogów score first in only 17% of matches
  • Chrobry Głogów have scored in 12 games running
  • Both sides lean high-scoring (83% and 75% over 2.5)
  • 83% of Chrobry Głogów’s matches go over 2.5 goals
  • 75% of Polonia Warszawa’s matches go over 2.5 goals
  • Both teams score in 75% of Polonia Warszawa’s matches

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Form
Głogów
WLLWL
Warszawa
LLWLL

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Chrobry Głogów host Polonia Warszawa

April 3, 2027: Chrobry Głogów take on Polonia Warszawa in I Liga. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Chrobry Głogów host Polonia Warszawa at Stadion Chrobrego.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.