Chrobry Głogów vs Pogoń Siedlce

Chrobry Głogów

Preview

15:00

Pogoń Siedlce

9/12/2026

I Liga · Round 8Stadion Chrobrego

Big match

42%

Chrobry Głogów

model favours

42%27%31%

Chrobry Głogów score first in only 17% of matches

brightest fact of this match

1–1

likely score

55%

under 2.5 goals

50%

both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 20+ matches

Chrobry Głogów42%

×Draw27%

Pogoń Siedlce31%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Chrobry GłogówExpected goals in this matchPogoń Siedlce

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.35

1.13

Chrobry Głogów

1.35

Pogoń Siedlce

1.13

Chrobry Głogów creates 19% more chances

Season form · 37 home / 20 away

1.35

creates per match

0.80

1.46

allows per match

1.35

creates per match

Chrobry Głogów

1.35

Pogoń Siedlce

0.80

allows per match

Chrobry Głogów

1.46

Pogoń Siedlce

1.35

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Chrobry Głogów+0.00on par

Pogoń Siedlce+0.00on par

Total goals

Under55
Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Chrobry Głogów ↓

Pogoń Siedlce →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–19%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

71%29%2.5

45%55%3.5

24%76%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Chrobry Głogów or draw

69%

Chrobry Głogów or Pogoń Siedlce

73%

Draw or Pogoń Siedlce

58%

Winning margin

Chrobry Głogów wins by 2+

19%

Pogoń Siedlce wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Chrobry Głogów 1+ goals

74%

Chrobry Głogów 2+ goals

39%

Chrobry Głogów 3+ goals

15%

Pogoń Siedlce 1+ goals

68%

Pogoń Siedlce 2+ goals

31%

Pogoń Siedlce 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Chrobry Głogów (draw refunded)

57%

Pogoń Siedlce (draw refunded)

43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

37%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Chrobry Głogów at home — creates 1.35, concedes 1.46 · 37 matches

Pogoń Siedlce away — creates 0.80, concedes 1.35 · 20 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Chrobry Głogów attack 1.35 + Pogoń Siedlce defence 1.35 → ÷2 → 1.35

Pogoń Siedlce attack 0.80 + Chrobry Głogów defence 1.46 → ÷2 → 1.13

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Chrobry Głogów scores more

42%

level

27%

Pogoń Siedlce scores more

31%

Chrobry Głogów at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Chrobry Głogów will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

Chrobry Głogów have scored in 12 games running
83% of Chrobry Głogów’s matches go over 2.5 goals
Chrobry Głogów have won 4 of the last 5 meetings
Both teams scored in 4 of the last 5 meetings
Chrobry Głogów sit 4, Pogoń Siedlce 14 in the table

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Form

Głogów

WLLWL

Siedlce

DLL

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff