Chrobry Głogów 1–0 Pogoń Siedlce: Result & Stats

Chrobry Głogów

FT

1 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Pogoń Siedlce

P. Szwedzik 45+4'

12/1/2024

I Liga · Round 18Stadion GOS

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 20+ matches

Chrobry Głogów46%

×Draw27%

Pogoń Siedlce27%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Chrobry GłogówExpected goals in this matchPogoń Siedlce

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.42

1.03

Chrobry Głogów

1.42

Pogoń Siedlce

1.03

Chrobry Głogów creates 38% more chances

Season form · 31 home / 20 away

1.48

creates per match

0.80

1.26

allows per match

1.35

creates per match

Chrobry Głogów

1.48

Pogoń Siedlce

0.80

allows per match

Chrobry Głogów

1.26

Pogoń Siedlce

1.35

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Chrobry Głogów+0.00on par

Pogoń Siedlce+0.00on par

Total goals

Under56
Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No51
Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Chrobry Głogów ↓

Pogoń Siedlce →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–19%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

70%30%2.5

44%56%3.5

23%77%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Chrobry Głogów or draw

73%

Chrobry Głogów or Pogoń Siedlce

73%

Draw or Pogoń Siedlce

54%

Winning margin

Chrobry Głogów wins by 2+

22%

Pogoń Siedlce wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Chrobry Głogów 1+ goals

76%

Chrobry Głogów 2+ goals

41%

Chrobry Głogów 3+ goals

17%

Pogoń Siedlce 1+ goals

64%

Pogoń Siedlce 2+ goals

28%

Pogoń Siedlce 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Chrobry Głogów (draw refunded)

63%

Pogoń Siedlce (draw refunded)

37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

36%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Chrobry Głogów at home — creates 1.48, concedes 1.26 · 31 matches

Pogoń Siedlce away — creates 0.80, concedes 1.35 · 20 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Chrobry Głogów attack 1.48 + Pogoń Siedlce defence 1.35 → ÷2 → 1.42

Pogoń Siedlce attack 0.80 + Chrobry Głogów defence 1.26 → ÷2 → 1.03

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Chrobry Głogów scores more

46%

level

27%

Pogoń Siedlce scores more

27%

Chrobry Głogów at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Chrobry Głogów will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

5'

M. Majewski← K. Podliński

37'

45+4'

55'

63'

72'

72'

M. Lewandowski← M. Lebedyński

82'

J. Lutostański← M. Majewski

90+2'

P. Tupaj

90+3'

P. Szwedzik

90+4'

S. Bartlewicz← P. Szwedzik

90'

S. Bonecki← P. Mucha

Chrobry

Pogoń

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

Szwedzik

Manager: Ł. Becella

72'▲B. Biel←▼K. Tabiś

72'▲M. Lewandowski←▼M. Lebedyński

90+4'▲S. Bartlewicz←▼P. Szwedzik

90'▲S. Bonecki←▼P. Mucha

Chrobry Głogów substitutes

BielLewandowskiBartlewiczBoneckiHancMarcinkowskiWróblewskiOzimekMalczuk

Manager: A. Nocoń

5'▲M. Majewski←▼K. Podliński

55'▲T. Milašius←▼D. Pik

82'▲J. Lutostański←▼M. Majewski

Pogoń Siedlce substitutes

MajewskiMilašiusLutostańskiOkusamiDemianiukKrzyżakPyrdołTopórMajewski

Match Recap: Chrobry Głogów vs Pogoń Siedlce

Chrobry Głogów beat Pogoń Siedlce 1-0 in I Liga on December 1, 2024.

Goals: P. Szwedzik (45+4').

The match was played at Stadion GOS in Głogów.

Chrobry Głogów vs Pogoń Siedlce — I Liga 2025

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Match Recap: Chrobry Głogów vs Pogoń Siedlce