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Chrobry Głogów vs Nieciecza — I Liga 2025

Chrobry Głogów
Chrobry Głogów
Preview
15:00
Nieciecza
Nieciecza
5/8/2027I LigaI Liga · Round 31Stadion Chrobrego
Big match
61%
Nieciecza
model favours
18%21%61%

Chrobry Głogów score first in only 17% of matches

brightest fact of this match

1–2
likely score
60%
over 2.5 goals
56%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

Chrobry Głogów18%
×Draw21%
Nieciecza61%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Chrobry Głogów
1.03
Nieciecza
2.08

Nieciecza creates 102% more chances

Season form · 37 home / 7 away

creates per match

Chrobry Głogów
1.35
Nieciecza
2.71

allows per match

Chrobry Głogów
1.46
Nieciecza
0.71

finishing

Chrobry Głogów+0.00on par
Nieciecza+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Over
  • Over60
  • Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Chrobry Głogów ↓

Nieciecza →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–19%
0–210%
0–37%
0–43%
1
1–05%
1–110%
1–210%
1–37%
1–44%
2
2–02%
2–15%
2–25%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–22%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–2 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
60%40%3.5
37%63%4.5
20%80%

Double chance

Chrobry Głogów or draw
39%
Chrobry Głogów or Nieciecza
79%
Draw or Nieciecza
82%

Winning margin

Chrobry Głogów wins by 2+
6%
Nieciecza wins by 2+
38%

Team goals

Chrobry Głogów 1+ goals
64%
Chrobry Głogów 2+ goals
28%
Chrobry Głogów 3+ goals
9%
Nieciecza 1+ goals
87%
Nieciecza 2+ goals
61%
Nieciecza 3+ goals
34%

Draw no bet

Chrobry Głogów (draw refunded)
23%
Nieciecza (draw refunded)
77%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
47%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Chrobry Głogów at home — creates 1.35, concedes 1.46 · 37 matches

Nieciecza away — creates 2.71, concedes 0.71 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Chrobry Głogów attack 1.35 + Nieciecza defence 0.71 → ÷2 → 1.03

Nieciecza attack 2.71 + Chrobry Głogów defence 1.46 → ÷2 → 2.08

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 61%?"

Chrobry Głogów scores more
18%
level
21%
Nieciecza scores more
61%

Nieciecza at 61% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 61% does not mean "Nieciecza will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • Chrobry Głogów have scored in 12 games running
  • 83% of Chrobry Głogów’s matches go over 2.5 goals
  • Nieciecza have won 4 of the last 5 meetings
  • Their last 5 meetings averaged 3.6 goals

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Form
Głogów
WLLWL
Nieciecza
WWWWW

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Chrobry Głogów vs Nieciecza — Match Preview

Chrobry Głogów face Nieciecza on May 8, 2027 in this I Liga fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

Chrobry Głogów host Nieciecza at Stadion Chrobrego.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.