Chrobry Głogów vs Miedz Legnica

Chrobry Głogów

Preview

16:00

Miedz Legnica

3/13/2027

I Liga · Round 24Stadion Chrobrego

Big match

42%

Chrobry Głogów

model favours

42%24%34%

Miedz Legnica score first in only 10% of matches

brightest fact of this match

1–1

likely score

58%

over 2.5 goals

61%

both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 21+ matches

Chrobry Głogów42%

×Draw24%

Miedz Legnica34%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Chrobry GłogówExpected goals in this matchMiedz Legnica

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.61

1.42

Chrobry Głogów

1.61

Miedz Legnica

1.42

Chrobry Głogów creates 13% more chances

Season form · 39 home / 21 away

1.36

creates per match

1.33

1.51

allows per match

1.86

creates per match

Chrobry Głogów

1.36

Miedz Legnica

1.33

allows per match

Chrobry Głogów

1.51

Miedz Legnica

1.86

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Chrobry Głogów+0.00on par

Miedz Legnica+0.00on par

Total goals

Over58
Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes61
No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Chrobry Głogów ↓

Miedz Legnica →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–17%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–111%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–15%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

80%20%2.5

58%42%3.5

36%64%4.5

19%81%

Double chance

Chrobry Głogów or draw

66%

Chrobry Głogów or Miedz Legnica

76%

Draw or Miedz Legnica

58%

Winning margin

Chrobry Głogów wins by 2+

21%

Miedz Legnica wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

Chrobry Głogów 1+ goals

80%

Chrobry Głogów 2+ goals

48%

Chrobry Głogów 3+ goals

22%

Miedz Legnica 1+ goals

76%

Miedz Legnica 2+ goals

41%

Miedz Legnica 3+ goals

17%

Draw no bet

Chrobry Głogów (draw refunded)

55%

Miedz Legnica (draw refunded)

45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

50%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Chrobry Głogów at home — creates 1.36, concedes 1.51 · 39 matches

Miedz Legnica away — creates 1.33, concedes 1.86 · 21 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Chrobry Głogów attack 1.36 + Miedz Legnica defence 1.86 → ÷2 → 1.61

Miedz Legnica attack 1.33 + Chrobry Głogów defence 1.51 → ÷2 → 1.42

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Chrobry Głogów scores more

42%

level

24%

Miedz Legnica scores more

34%

Chrobry Głogów at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Chrobry Głogów will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

Chrobry Głogów score first in only 17% of matches
Both sides lean high-scoring (83% and 80% over 2.5)
Chrobry Głogów have scored in 12 games running
83% of Chrobry Głogów’s matches go over 2.5 goals
80% of Miedz Legnica’s matches go over 2.5 goals
Chrobry Głogów win just 22% against the top half (vs 67% against the bottom)

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Form

Głogów

WLLWL

Legnica

WDLWL

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff