Chrobry Głogów vs ŁKS Łódź: Preview & Prediction

Chrobry Głogów

Preview

16:00

ŁKS Łódź

2/13/2027

I Liga · Round 20Stadion Chrobrego

Big match

44%

Chrobry Głogów

model favours

44%25%32%

Chrobry Głogów score first in only 17% of matches

brightest fact of this match

1–1

likely score

56%

over 2.5 goals

58%

both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 18+ matches

Chrobry Głogów44%

×Draw25%

ŁKS Łódź32%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Chrobry GłogówExpected goals in this matchŁKS Łódź

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.59

1.32

Chrobry Głogów

1.59

ŁKS Łódź

1.32

Chrobry Głogów creates 20% more chances

Season form · 28 home / 18 away

1.46

creates per match

1.44

1.21

allows per match

1.72

creates per match

Chrobry Głogów

1.46

ŁKS Łódź

1.44

allows per match

Chrobry Głogów

1.21

ŁKS Łódź

1.72

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Chrobry Głogów+0.00on par

ŁKS Łódź+0.00on par

Total goals

Over56
Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes58
No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Chrobry Głogów ↓

ŁKS Łódź →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–17%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–111%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

79%21%2.5

56%44%3.5

33%67%4.5

17%83%

Double chance

Chrobry Głogów or draw

68%

Chrobry Głogów or ŁKS Łódź

75%

Draw or ŁKS Łódź

56%

Winning margin

Chrobry Głogów wins by 2+

22%

ŁKS Łódź wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Chrobry Głogów 1+ goals

80%

Chrobry Głogów 2+ goals

47%

Chrobry Głogów 3+ goals

21%

ŁKS Łódź 1+ goals

73%

ŁKS Łódź 2+ goals

38%

ŁKS Łódź 3+ goals

15%

Draw no bet

Chrobry Głogów (draw refunded)

58%

ŁKS Łódź (draw refunded)

42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

47%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Chrobry Głogów at home — creates 1.46, concedes 1.21 · 28 matches

ŁKS Łódź away — creates 1.44, concedes 1.72 · 18 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Chrobry Głogów attack 1.46 + ŁKS Łódź defence 1.72 → ÷2 → 1.59

ŁKS Łódź attack 1.44 + Chrobry Głogów defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 1.32

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Chrobry Głogów scores more

44%

level

25%

ŁKS Łódź scores more

32%

Chrobry Głogów at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Chrobry Głogów will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

Chrobry Głogów have scored in 12 games running
83% of Chrobry Głogów’s matches go over 2.5 goals
Chrobry Głogów win just 22% against the top half (vs 67% against the bottom)
ŁKS Łódź win just 18% against the top half (vs 67% against the bottom)
Both teams scored in 5 of the last 5 meetings
Their last 5 meetings averaged 3.6 goals