Chrobry Głogów 2–1 Kalisz: Result & Stats

Chrobry Głogów

FT

2 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Kalisz

1/21/2026

Friendlies Clubs · Club Friendly

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Chrobry Głogów62%

×Draw19%

Kalisz19%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Chrobry GłogówExpected goals in this matchKalisz

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.46

1.32

Chrobry Głogów

2.46

Kalisz

1.32

Chrobry Głogów creates 86% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 4 away

2.43

creates per match

1.50

1.14

allows per match

2.50

creates per match

Chrobry Głogów

2.43

Kalisz

1.50

allows per match

Chrobry Głogów

1.14

Kalisz

2.50

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Chrobry Głogów+0.00on par

Kalisz+0.00on par

Total goals

Over72
Under28

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes67
No33

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Chrobry Głogów ↓

Kalisz →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–13%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–06%

1–18%

1–25%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–06%

3–18%

3–25%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–04%

4–15%

4–23%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

89%11%2.5

72%28%3.5

52%48%4.5

32%68%

Double chance

Chrobry Głogów or draw

81%

Chrobry Głogów or Kalisz

81%

Draw or Kalisz

38%

Winning margin

Chrobry Głogów wins by 2+

40%

Kalisz wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Chrobry Głogów 1+ goals

91%

Chrobry Głogów 2+ goals

70%

Chrobry Głogów 3+ goals

44%

Kalisz 1+ goals

73%

Kalisz 2+ goals

38%

Kalisz 3+ goals

15%

Draw no bet

Chrobry Głogów (draw refunded)

76%

Kalisz (draw refunded)

24%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

59%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Chrobry Głogów at home — creates 2.43, concedes 1.14 · 7 matches

Kalisz away — creates 1.50, concedes 2.50 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Chrobry Głogów attack 2.43 + Kalisz defence 2.50 → ÷2 → 2.46

Kalisz attack 1.50 + Chrobry Głogów defence 1.14 → ÷2 → 1.32

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 62%?"

Chrobry Głogów scores more

62%

level

19%

Kalisz scores more

19%

Chrobry Głogów at 62% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 62% does not mean "Chrobry Głogów will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Chrobry

Kalisz

30

4

21

3

8

19

10

37

9

99

29

8

80

55

16

10

30

72

Manager: Lukasz Becella

Chrobry Głogów substitutes

1WroblewskiJanik44Zarowny33Malczuk18Mazur24Grzelak7Bonecki17Ibe-Torti15Nowakowski27Laskowski11Strozik

Manager: Michal Gosciniak

Match Recap: Chrobry Głogów vs Kalisz

Chrobry Głogów beat Kalisz 2-1 in Friendlies Clubs on January 21, 2026.

Chrobry Głogów vs Kalisz — Friendlies Clubs 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Head to Head

Match Recap: Chrobry Głogów vs Kalisz