Chrobry Głogów II 3–5 Raków Częstochowa II

Chrobry Głogów II

FT

3 – 5

Raków Częstochowa II

6/7/2023

III Liga - Group 3 · Group 3 - 33MZKS Głogów Boisko piłkarskie

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Chrobry Głogów II30%

×Draw21%

Raków Częstochowa II49%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Chrobry Głogów IIExpected goals in this matchRaków Częstochowa II

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.59

2.09

Chrobry Głogów II

1.59

Raków Częstochowa II

2.09

Raków Częstochowa II creates 31% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 34 away

1.47

creates per match

1.53

2.65

allows per match

1.71

creates per match

Chrobry Głogów II

1.47

Raków Częstochowa II

1.53

allows per match

Chrobry Głogów II

2.65

Raków Częstochowa II

1.71

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Chrobry Głogów II+0.00on par

Raków Częstochowa II+0.00on par

Total goals

Over71
Under29

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes70
No30

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Chrobry Głogów II ↓

Raków Częstochowa II →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–15%

0–26%

0–34%

0–42%

1

1–04%

1–18%

1–29%

1–36%

1–43%

2

2–03%

2–17%

2–27%

2–35%

2–43%

3

3–02%

3–14%

3–24%

3–33%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–31%

4–41%

Most likely 1–2 (9%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

88%12%2.5

71%29%3.5

50%50%4.5

30%70%

Double chance

Chrobry Głogów II or draw

51%

Chrobry Głogów II or Raków Częstochowa II

79%

Draw or Raków Częstochowa II

70%

Winning margin

Chrobry Głogów II wins by 2+

14%

Raków Częstochowa II wins by 2+

29%

Team goals

Chrobry Głogów II 1+ goals

80%

Chrobry Głogów II 2+ goals

47%

Chrobry Głogów II 3+ goals

21%

Raków Częstochowa II 1+ goals

88%

Raków Częstochowa II 2+ goals

62%

Raków Częstochowa II 3+ goals

34%

Draw no bet

Chrobry Głogów II (draw refunded)

38%

Raków Częstochowa II (draw refunded)

62%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

61%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Chrobry Głogów II at home — creates 1.47, concedes 2.65 · 17 matches

Raków Częstochowa II away — creates 1.53, concedes 1.71 · 34 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Chrobry Głogów II attack 1.47 + Raków Częstochowa II defence 1.71 → ÷2 → 1.59

Raków Częstochowa II attack 1.53 + Chrobry Głogów II defence 2.65 → ÷2 → 2.09

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Chrobry Głogów II scores more

30%

level

21%

Raków Częstochowa II scores more

49%

Raków Częstochowa II at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Raków Częstochowa II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff