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Chrobry Głogów II vs Polonia Bytom — III Liga - Group 3 2020

Chrobry Głogów II
Chrobry Głogów II
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Polonia Bytom
Polonia Bytom
T. Gajda 78'
J. Goralczyk 41'
8/20/2022III Liga - Group 3III Liga - Group 3 · Group 3 - 4Stadion GOS

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Chrobry Głogów II21%
×Draw20%
Polonia Bytom59%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Chrobry Głogów II
1.31
Polonia Bytom
2.29

Polonia Bytom creates 75% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 52 away

creates per match

Chrobry Głogów II
1.47
Polonia Bytom
1.92

allows per match

Chrobry Głogów II
2.65
Polonia Bytom
1.15

finishing

Chrobry Głogów II+0.00on par
Polonia Bytom+0.00on par

Total goals

69%Over
  • Over69
  • Under31

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

66%Yes
  • Yes66
  • No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Chrobry Głogów II ↓

Polonia Bytom →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–16%
0–27%
0–36%
0–43%
1
1–04%
1–18%
1–29%
1–37%
1–44%
2
2–02%
2–15%
2–26%
2–35%
2–43%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–2 (9%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
87%13%2.5
69%31%3.5
48%52%4.5
29%71%

Double chance

Chrobry Głogów II or draw
41%
Chrobry Głogów II or Polonia Bytom
80%
Draw or Polonia Bytom
79%

Winning margin

Chrobry Głogów II wins by 2+
9%
Polonia Bytom wins by 2+
37%

Team goals

Chrobry Głogów II 1+ goals
73%
Chrobry Głogów II 2+ goals
38%
Chrobry Głogów II 3+ goals
14%
Polonia Bytom 1+ goals
90%
Polonia Bytom 2+ goals
66%
Polonia Bytom 3+ goals
40%

Draw no bet

Chrobry Głogów II (draw refunded)
26%
Polonia Bytom (draw refunded)
74%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
57%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Chrobry Głogów II at home — creates 1.47, concedes 2.65 · 17 matches

Polonia Bytom away — creates 1.92, concedes 1.15 · 52 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Chrobry Głogów II attack 1.47 + Polonia Bytom defence 1.15 → ÷2 → 1.31

Polonia Bytom attack 1.92 + Chrobry Głogów II defence 2.65 → ÷2 → 2.29

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 59%?"

Chrobry Głogów II scores more
21%
level
20%
Polonia Bytom scores more
59%

Polonia Bytom at 59% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 59% does not mean "Polonia Bytom will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

41'
J. Goralczyk
78'
T. Gajda

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Chrobry Głogów II vs Polonia Bytom

Polonia Bytom beat Chrobry Głogów II 2-0 in III Liga - Group 3 on August 20, 2022.

Goals: J. Goralczyk (41'), T. Gajda (78').

The match was played at Stadion GOS in Głogów.