Chornomorets 0–0 Zorya Luhansk: Result & Stats

Chornomorets

FT

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Zorya Luhansk

9/30/2023

Premier League · Round 9Stadion Chornomorets

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 55+ matches

Chornomorets27%

×Draw25%

Zorya Luhansk48%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

ChornomoretsExpected goals in this matchZorya Luhansk

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.09

1.56

Chornomorets

1.09

Zorya Luhansk

1.56

Zorya Luhansk creates 43% more chances

Season form · 55 home / 98 away

0.96

creates per match

1.62

1.49

allows per match

1.23

creates per match

Chornomorets

0.96

Zorya Luhansk

1.62

allows per match

Chornomorets

1.49

Zorya Luhansk

1.23

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Chornomorets+0.00on par

Zorya Luhansk+0.00on par

Total goals

Under51
Over49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes52
No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Chornomorets ↓

Zorya Luhansk →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–111%

0–29%

0–34%

0–42%

1

1–08%

1–112%

1–29%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–04%

2–17%

2–25%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–12%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

74%26%2.5

49%51%3.5

27%73%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Chornomorets or draw

52%

Chornomorets or Zorya Luhansk

75%

Draw or Zorya Luhansk

73%

Winning margin

Chornomorets wins by 2+

10%

Zorya Luhansk wins by 2+

25%

Team goals

Chornomorets 1+ goals

66%

Chornomorets 2+ goals

30%

Chornomorets 3+ goals

10%

Zorya Luhansk 1+ goals

79%

Zorya Luhansk 2+ goals

46%

Zorya Luhansk 3+ goals

21%

Draw no bet

Chornomorets (draw refunded)

36%

Zorya Luhansk (draw refunded)

64%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

40%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Chornomorets at home — creates 0.96, concedes 1.49 · 55 matches

Zorya Luhansk away — creates 1.62, concedes 1.23 · 98 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Chornomorets attack 0.96 + Zorya Luhansk defence 1.23 → ÷2 → 1.09

Zorya Luhansk attack 1.62 + Chornomorets defence 1.49 → ÷2 → 1.56

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Chornomorets scores more

27%

level

25%

Zorya Luhansk scores more

48%

Zorya Luhansk at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Zorya Luhansk will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

29'

Roman Vantukh

35'

Dadá Belmonte

67'

Anderson Jordan

69'

Z. Badibanga← V. Vakula

69'

A. Avahimian← Dadá Belmonte

69'

B. Boichuk← S. Iyede

80'

Wendell← I. Horbach

80'

V. Voloshyn← D. Nahnoinyi

81'

G. Hadida← A. Shtohrin

86'

I. Holovkin← D. Myshniov

87'

O. Danchenko← D. Antiukh

Possession

Shots

Statistics

ChornomoretsZorya

Overview

49%Possession51%

17Total Shots17

4Corners7

9Fouls15

Shots

17Total Shots17

4On Target9

10Off Target6

3Blocked2

Passing

49%Possession51%

Goalkeeping

9Saves4

Discipline

9Fouls15

1Yellow Cards2

0Red Cards0

1Offsides1