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Chornomorets vs Struga — Friendlies Clubs 2026

Chornomorets
Chornomorets
CANC
13:00
Struga
Struga
1/29/2024Friendlies ClubsFriendlies Clubs · Club Friendlies 5TBC

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Chornomorets43%
×Draw28%
Struga29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Chornomorets
1.27
Struga
0.98

Chornomorets creates 30% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 5 away

creates per match

Chornomorets
1.33
Struga
0.80

allows per match

Chornomorets
1.17
Struga
1.20

finishing

Chornomorets+0.00on par
Struga+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Under
  • Under61
  • Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

55%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Chornomorets ↓

Struga →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–110%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
66%34%2.5
39%61%3.5
19%81%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Chornomorets or draw
71%
Chornomorets or Struga
72%
Draw or Struga
57%

Winning margin

Chornomorets wins by 2+
19%
Struga wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Chornomorets 1+ goals
72%
Chornomorets 2+ goals
36%
Chornomorets 3+ goals
14%
Struga 1+ goals
62%
Struga 2+ goals
26%
Struga 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Chornomorets (draw refunded)
60%
Struga (draw refunded)
40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
32%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Chornomorets at home — creates 1.33, concedes 1.17 · 6 matches

Struga away — creates 0.80, concedes 1.20 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Chornomorets attack 1.33 + Struga defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.27

Struga attack 0.80 + Chornomorets defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 0.98

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Chornomorets scores more
43%
level
28%
Struga scores more
29%

Chornomorets at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Chornomorets will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Chornomorets host Struga

January 29, 2024: Chornomorets take on Struga in Friendlies Clubs. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Chornomorets host Struga at TBC.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.