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Chornomorets vs Petrolul Ploiesti — Friendlies Clubs 2026

Chornomorets
Chornomorets
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Petrolul Ploiesti
Petrolul Ploiesti
1/12/2024Friendlies ClubsFriendlies Clubs · Club Friendlies 3TBC

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Chornomorets39%
×Draw26%
Petrolul Ploiesti35%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Chornomorets
1.35
Petrolul Ploiesti
1.27

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 6 home / 13 away

creates per match

Chornomorets
1.33
Petrolul Ploiesti
1.38

allows per match

Chornomorets
1.17
Petrolul Ploiesti
1.38

finishing

Chornomorets+0.00on par
Petrolul Ploiesti+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Under
  • Under51
  • Over49

Close call

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Chornomorets ↓

Petrolul Ploiesti →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–19%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
49%51%3.5
27%73%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Chornomorets or draw
65%
Chornomorets or Petrolul Ploiesti
74%
Draw or Petrolul Ploiesti
61%

Winning margin

Chornomorets wins by 2+
18%
Petrolul Ploiesti wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Chornomorets 1+ goals
74%
Chornomorets 2+ goals
39%
Chornomorets 3+ goals
15%
Petrolul Ploiesti 1+ goals
72%
Petrolul Ploiesti 2+ goals
36%
Petrolul Ploiesti 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Chornomorets (draw refunded)
53%
Petrolul Ploiesti (draw refunded)
47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Chornomorets at home — creates 1.33, concedes 1.17 · 6 matches

Petrolul Ploiesti away — creates 1.38, concedes 1.38 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Chornomorets attack 1.33 + Petrolul Ploiesti defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.35

Petrolul Ploiesti attack 1.38 + Chornomorets defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 1.27

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Chornomorets scores more
39%
level
26%
Petrolul Ploiesti scores more
35%

Chornomorets at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Chornomorets will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Chornomorets vs Petrolul Ploiesti

Chornomorets beat Petrolul Ploiesti 1-0 in Friendlies Clubs on January 12, 2024.

The match was played at TBC in TBC.