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Chornomorets vs Dnipro-1 — Premier League 2019

Chornomorets
Chornomorets
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Dnipro-1
Dnipro-1
5/25/2024Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 30Stadion Chornomorets

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 55+ matches

Chornomorets30%
×Draw26%
Dnipro-144%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Chornomorets
1.12
Dnipro-1
1.43

Dnipro-1 creates 28% more chances

Season form · 55 home / 68 away

creates per match

Chornomorets
0.96
Dnipro-1
1.37

allows per match

Chornomorets
1.49
Dnipro-1
1.28

finishing

Chornomorets+0.00on par
Dnipro-1+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Under
  • Under53
  • Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Chornomorets ↓

Dnipro-1 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–111%
0–28%
0–34%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–113%
1–29%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–17%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
47%53%3.5
25%75%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Chornomorets or draw
56%
Chornomorets or Dnipro-1
74%
Draw or Dnipro-1
70%

Winning margin

Chornomorets wins by 2+
12%
Dnipro-1 wins by 2+
21%

Team goals

Chornomorets 1+ goals
67%
Chornomorets 2+ goals
31%
Chornomorets 3+ goals
10%
Dnipro-1 1+ goals
76%
Dnipro-1 2+ goals
42%
Dnipro-1 3+ goals
17%

Draw no bet

Chornomorets (draw refunded)
40%
Dnipro-1 (draw refunded)
60%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Chornomorets at home — creates 0.96, concedes 1.49 · 55 matches

Dnipro-1 away — creates 1.37, concedes 1.28 · 68 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Chornomorets attack 0.96 + Dnipro-1 defence 1.28 → ÷2 → 1.12

Dnipro-1 attack 1.37 + Chornomorets defence 1.49 → ÷2 → 1.43

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Chornomorets scores more
30%
level
26%
Dnipro-1 scores more
44%

Dnipro-1 at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Dnipro-1 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Premier League: Chornomorets 0–2 Dnipro-1

Dnipro-1 beat Chornomorets 2-0 in Premier League on May 25, 2024.

The match was played at Stadion Chornomorets in Odessa.