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Chornomorets U19 vs Shakhtar Donetsk U19 — U19 League 2023

Chornomorets U19
Chornomorets U19
FT
1 – 5
HT: 1 – 3
Shakhtar Donetsk U19
Shakhtar Donetsk U19
5/2/2025U19 LeagueU19 League · Round 27SK Lyustdorf

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

Chornomorets U1915%
×Draw19%
Shakhtar Donetsk U1966%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Chornomorets U19
0.94
Shakhtar Donetsk U19
2.20

Shakhtar Donetsk U19 creates 134% more chances

Season form · 30 home / 45 away

creates per match

Chornomorets U19
0.83
Shakhtar Donetsk U19
2.80

allows per match

Chornomorets U19
1.60
Shakhtar Donetsk U19
1.04

finishing

Chornomorets U19+0.00on par
Shakhtar Donetsk U19+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Over
  • Over60
  • Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Chornomorets U19 ↓

Shakhtar Donetsk U19 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–110%
0–211%
0–38%
0–44%
1
1–04%
1–19%
1–210%
1–37%
1–44%
2
2–02%
2–14%
2–25%
2–33%
2–42%
3
3–01%
3–11%
3–21%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–2 (11%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
60%40%3.5
38%62%4.5
20%80%

Double chance

Chornomorets U19 or draw
34%
Chornomorets U19 or Shakhtar Donetsk U19
81%
Draw or Shakhtar Donetsk U19
85%

Winning margin

Chornomorets U19 wins by 2+
5%
Shakhtar Donetsk U19 wins by 2+
42%

Team goals

Chornomorets U19 1+ goals
61%
Chornomorets U19 2+ goals
24%
Chornomorets U19 3+ goals
7%
Shakhtar Donetsk U19 1+ goals
89%
Shakhtar Donetsk U19 2+ goals
64%
Shakhtar Donetsk U19 3+ goals
37%

Draw no bet

Chornomorets U19 (draw refunded)
19%
Shakhtar Donetsk U19 (draw refunded)
81%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
45%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Chornomorets U19 at home — creates 0.83, concedes 1.60 · 30 matches

Shakhtar Donetsk U19 away — creates 2.80, concedes 1.04 · 45 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Chornomorets U19 attack 0.83 + Shakhtar Donetsk U19 defence 1.04 → ÷2 → 0.94

Shakhtar Donetsk U19 attack 2.80 + Chornomorets U19 defence 1.60 → ÷2 → 2.20

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 66%?"

Chornomorets U19 scores more
15%
level
19%
Shakhtar Donetsk U19 scores more
66%

Shakhtar Donetsk U19 at 66% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 66% does not mean "Shakhtar Donetsk U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

U19 League: Chornomorets U19 1–5 Shakhtar Donetsk U19

Shakhtar Donetsk U19 beat Chornomorets U19 5-1 in U19 League on May 2, 2025.

The match was played at SK Lyustdorf in Odesa.