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Chornomorets U19 vs Minaj U19 — U19 League 2023

Chornomorets U19
Chornomorets U19
FT
0 – 1
Minaj U19
Minaj U19
10/21/2023U19 LeagueU19 League · Round 11SK Lyustdorf

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Chornomorets U1938%
×Draw26%
Minaj U1936%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Chornomorets U19
1.35
Minaj U19
1.30

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 30 home / 15 away

creates per match

Chornomorets U19
0.83
Minaj U19
1.00

allows per match

Chornomorets U19
1.60
Minaj U19
1.87

finishing

Chornomorets U19+0.00on par
Minaj U19+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Under
  • Under51
  • Over49

Close call

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Chornomorets U19 ↓

Minaj U19 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–19%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
49%51%3.5
27%73%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Chornomorets U19 or draw
64%
Chornomorets U19 or Minaj U19
74%
Draw or Minaj U19
62%

Winning margin

Chornomorets U19 wins by 2+
17%
Minaj U19 wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Chornomorets U19 1+ goals
74%
Chornomorets U19 2+ goals
39%
Chornomorets U19 3+ goals
15%
Minaj U19 1+ goals
73%
Minaj U19 2+ goals
37%
Minaj U19 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Chornomorets U19 (draw refunded)
52%
Minaj U19 (draw refunded)
48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Chornomorets U19 at home — creates 0.83, concedes 1.60 · 30 matches

Minaj U19 away — creates 1.00, concedes 1.87 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Chornomorets U19 attack 0.83 + Minaj U19 defence 1.87 → ÷2 → 1.35

Minaj U19 attack 1.00 + Chornomorets U19 defence 1.60 → ÷2 → 1.30

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Chornomorets U19 scores more
38%
level
26%
Minaj U19 scores more
36%

Chornomorets U19 at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Chornomorets U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

U19 League: Chornomorets U19 0–1 Minaj U19

Minaj U19 beat Chornomorets U19 1-0 in U19 League on October 21, 2023.

The match was played at SK Lyustdorf in Odessa.