Chornomorets U19 5–0 Metalist 1925 U19

Chornomorets U19

FT

5 – 0

HT: 4 – 0

Metalist 1925 U19

5/11/2024

U19 League · Round 28Stadion FSK Ivan

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

Chornomorets U1942%

×Draw24%

Metalist 1925 U1934%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Chornomorets U19Expected goals in this matchMetalist 1925 U19

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.67

1.49

Chornomorets U19

1.67

Metalist 1925 U19

1.49

Chornomorets U19 creates 12% more chances

Season form · 30 home / 30 away

0.83

creates per match

1.37

1.60

allows per match

2.50

creates per match

Chornomorets U19

0.83

Metalist 1925 U19

1.37

allows per match

Chornomorets U19

1.60

Metalist 1925 U19

2.50

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Chornomorets U19+0.00on par

Metalist 1925 U19+0.00on par

Total goals

Over61
Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes63
No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Chornomorets U19 ↓

Metalist 1925 U19 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–16%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–07%

1–111%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–27%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–15%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

82%18%2.5

61%39%3.5

39%61%4.5

21%79%

Double chance

Chornomorets U19 or draw

66%

Chornomorets U19 or Metalist 1925 U19

76%

Draw or Metalist 1925 U19

58%

Winning margin

Chornomorets U19 wins by 2+

22%

Metalist 1925 U19 wins by 2+

16%

Team goals

Chornomorets U19 1+ goals

81%

Chornomorets U19 2+ goals

50%

Chornomorets U19 3+ goals

23%

Metalist 1925 U19 1+ goals

77%

Metalist 1925 U19 2+ goals

44%

Metalist 1925 U19 3+ goals

19%

Draw no bet

Chornomorets U19 (draw refunded)

55%

Metalist 1925 U19 (draw refunded)

45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

52%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Chornomorets U19 at home — creates 0.83, concedes 1.60 · 30 matches

Metalist 1925 U19 away — creates 1.37, concedes 2.50 · 30 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Chornomorets U19 attack 0.83 + Metalist 1925 U19 defence 2.50 → ÷2 → 1.67

Metalist 1925 U19 attack 1.37 + Chornomorets U19 defence 1.60 → ÷2 → 1.49

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Chornomorets U19 scores more

42%

level

24%

Metalist 1925 U19 scores more

34%

Chornomorets U19 at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Chornomorets U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff