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Chorley W vs Bradford City — FA Women's Cup 2019

Chorley W
Chorley W
FT
5 – 0
Bradford City
Bradford City
12/5/2021FA Women's CupFA Women's Cup · 2nd RoundBlainscough Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Chorley W52%
×Draw19%
Bradford City29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Chorley W
2.63
Bradford City
1.96

Chorley W creates 34% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 6 away

creates per match

Chorley W
1.75
Bradford City
1.17

allows per match

Chorley W
2.75
Bradford City
3.50

finishing

Chorley W+0.00on par
Bradford City+0.00on par

Total goals

83%Over
  • Over83
  • Under17

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

80%Yes
  • Yes80
  • No20

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Chorley W ↓

Bradford City →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–12%
0–22%
0–31%
0–41%
1
1–03%
1–15%
1–25%
1–33%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–27%
2–35%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–16%
3–26%
3–34%
3–42%
4
4–02%
4–14%
4–24%
4–33%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (7%) · grid covers 85% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
94%6%2.5
83%17%3.5
67%33%4.5
47%53%

Double chance

Chorley W or draw
71%
Chorley W or Bradford City
81%
Draw or Bradford City
48%

Winning margin

Chorley W wins by 2+
33%
Bradford City wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Chorley W 1+ goals
93%
Chorley W 2+ goals
73%
Chorley W 3+ goals
48%
Bradford City 1+ goals
86%
Bradford City 2+ goals
58%
Bradford City 3+ goals
31%

Draw no bet

Chorley W (draw refunded)
64%
Bradford City (draw refunded)
36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
74%
Both score & under 3
5%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Chorley W at home — creates 1.75, concedes 2.75 · 4 matches

Bradford City away — creates 1.17, concedes 3.50 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Chorley W attack 1.75 + Bradford City defence 3.50 → ÷2 → 2.63

Bradford City attack 1.17 + Chorley W defence 2.75 → ÷2 → 1.96

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Chorley W scores more
52%
level
19%
Bradford City scores more
29%

Chorley W at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Chorley W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Chorley W vs Bradford City

Chorley W beat Bradford City 5-0 in FA Women's Cup on December 5, 2021.

The match was played at Blainscough Park in Chorley, Lancashire.