Chorley 4–2 Southport: Result & Stats | League #50

Chorley

FT

4 – 2

HT: 2 – 2

Southport

M. Ellis 67'

A. Blakeman 63', 17'

A. Popoola 34'

D. Pedro 36'

T. Lavelle 2'

2/10/2026

League #50 · North - 32Victory Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 9+ matches

Chorley48%

×Draw23%

Southport29%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

ChorleyExpected goals in this matchSouthport

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.82

1.35

Chorley

1.82

Southport

1.35

Chorley creates 35% more chances

Season form · 9 home / 34 away

2.00

creates per match

1.15

1.56

allows per match

1.65

creates per match

Chorley

2.00

Southport

1.15

allows per match

Chorley

1.56

Southport

1.65

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Chorley+0.00on par

Southport+0.00on par

Total goals

Over61
Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes62
No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Chorley ↓

Southport →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–16%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–110%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–16%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

82%18%2.5

61%39%3.5

39%61%4.5

21%79%

Double chance

Chorley or draw

71%

Chorley or Southport

77%

Draw or Southport

52%

Winning margin

Chorley wins by 2+

27%

Southport wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Chorley 1+ goals

84%

Chorley 2+ goals

54%

Chorley 3+ goals

27%

Southport 1+ goals

74%

Southport 2+ goals

39%

Southport 3+ goals

15%

Draw no bet

Chorley (draw refunded)

63%

Southport (draw refunded)

37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

52%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Chorley at home — creates 2.00, concedes 1.56 · 9 matches

Southport away — creates 1.15, concedes 1.65 · 34 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Chorley attack 2.00 + Southport defence 1.65 → ÷2 → 1.82

Southport attack 1.15 + Chorley defence 1.56 → ÷2 → 1.35

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Chorley scores more

48%

level

23%

Southport scores more

29%

Chorley at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Chorley will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

2'

17'

34'

36'

63'

67'

84'

P. Murphy-Worrell

84'

P. Murphy-Worrell

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff