Chorley 0–3 Boston Town: Result & Stats

Chorley

FT

0 – 3

HT: 0 – 3

Boston Town

3/23/2024

League #50 · North - 41The Chorley Group Victory Park Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Chorley29%

×Draw22%

Boston Town50%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

ChorleyExpected goals in this matchBoston Town

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.50

2.03

Chorley

1.50

Boston Town

2.03

Boston Town creates 35% more chances

Season form · 9 home / 6 away

2.00

creates per match

2.50

1.56

allows per match

1.00

creates per match

Chorley

2.00

Boston Town

2.50

allows per match

Chorley

1.56

Boston Town

1.00

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Chorley+0.00on par

Boston Town+0.00on par

Total goals

Over68
Under32

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes67
No33

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Chorley ↓

Boston Town →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–16%

0–26%

0–34%

0–42%

1

1–04%

1–19%

1–29%

1–36%

1–43%

2

2–03%

2–17%

2–27%

2–35%

2–42%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

87%13%2.5

68%32%3.5

47%53%4.5

28%72%

Double chance

Chorley or draw

50%

Chorley or Boston Town

78%

Draw or Boston Town

71%

Winning margin

Chorley wins by 2+

13%

Boston Town wins by 2+

29%

Team goals

Chorley 1+ goals

78%

Chorley 2+ goals

44%

Chorley 3+ goals

19%

Boston Town 1+ goals

87%

Boston Town 2+ goals

60%

Boston Town 3+ goals

33%

Draw no bet

Chorley (draw refunded)

37%

Boston Town (draw refunded)

63%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

58%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Chorley at home — creates 2.00, concedes 1.56 · 9 matches

Boston Town away — creates 2.50, concedes 1.00 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Chorley attack 2.00 + Boston Town defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.50

Boston Town attack 2.50 + Chorley defence 1.56 → ÷2 → 2.03

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Chorley scores more

29%

level

22%

Boston Town scores more

50%

Boston Town at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Boston Town will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

8'

J. KnowlesPenalty

30'

J. Knowles

43'

J. Knowles

65'

G. Horbury← K. Glynn

70'

C. Ubaezuonu← J. Sampson

77'

M. Gyasi← L. Mahovo

84'

J. Hazelhurst

90'

J. Nolan← J. Johnson

Chorley

Boston

▼

⚽3

▼

▼

▼

Manager: A. Preece

65'▲G. Horbury←▼K. Glynn

70'▲C. Ubaezuonu←▼J. Sampson

90'▲J. Nolan←▼J. Johnson

Chorley substitutes

HorburyUbaezuonuNolanWhitehouseMoyo

Manager: I. Culverhouse

Boston Town substitutes

GyasiSotonaSmartLeakMills