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Chooka Talesh vs Shams Azar Qazvin — Azadegan League 2018

Chooka Talesh
Chooka Talesh
FT
0 – 3
HT: 0 – 0
Shams Azar Qazvin
Shams Azar Qazvin
5/4/2023Azadegan LeagueAzadegan League · Round 31Pouria Vali Talesh Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

Chooka Talesh32%
×Draw29%
Shams Azar Qazvin39%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Chooka Talesh
1.06
Shams Azar Qazvin
1.20

Shams Azar Qazvin creates 13% more chances

Season form · 33 home / 30 away

creates per match

Chooka Talesh
1.15
Shams Azar Qazvin
1.13

allows per match

Chooka Talesh
1.27
Shams Azar Qazvin
0.97

finishing

Chooka Talesh+0.00on par
Shams Azar Qazvin+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Under
  • Under61
  • Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Chooka Talesh ↓

Shams Azar Qazvin →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–113%
0–28%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–17%
2–24%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–21%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
66%34%2.5
39%61%3.5
19%81%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Chooka Talesh or draw
61%
Chooka Talesh or Shams Azar Qazvin
71%
Draw or Shams Azar Qazvin
68%

Winning margin

Chooka Talesh wins by 2+
12%
Shams Azar Qazvin wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Chooka Talesh 1+ goals
65%
Chooka Talesh 2+ goals
29%
Chooka Talesh 3+ goals
9%
Shams Azar Qazvin 1+ goals
70%
Shams Azar Qazvin 2+ goals
34%
Shams Azar Qazvin 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Chooka Talesh (draw refunded)
45%
Shams Azar Qazvin (draw refunded)
55%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
32%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Chooka Talesh at home — creates 1.15, concedes 1.27 · 33 matches

Shams Azar Qazvin away — creates 1.13, concedes 0.97 · 30 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Chooka Talesh attack 1.15 + Shams Azar Qazvin defence 0.97 → ÷2 → 1.06

Shams Azar Qazvin attack 1.13 + Chooka Talesh defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.20

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Chooka Talesh scores more
32%
level
29%
Shams Azar Qazvin scores more
39%

Shams Azar Qazvin at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Shams Azar Qazvin will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Azadegan League: Chooka Talesh 0–3 Shams Azar Qazvin

Shams Azar Qazvin beat Chooka Talesh 3-0 in Azadegan League on May 4, 2023.

The match was played at Pouria Vali Talesh Stadium in Talesh.