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Chooka Talesh vs Shahrdari Astara — Azadegan League 2018

Chooka Talesh
Chooka Talesh
FT
3 – 0
HT: 2 – 0
Shahrdari Astara
Shahrdari Astara
2/25/2023Azadegan LeagueAzadegan League · Round 23Pouria Vali Talesh Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 33+ matches

Chooka Talesh51%
×Draw27%
Shahrdari Astara22%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Chooka Talesh
1.43
Shahrdari Astara
0.83

Chooka Talesh creates 72% more chances

Season form · 33 home / 84 away

creates per match

Chooka Talesh
1.15
Shahrdari Astara
0.40

allows per match

Chooka Talesh
1.27
Shahrdari Astara
1.71

finishing

Chooka Talesh+0.00on par
Shahrdari Astara+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Under
  • Under61
  • Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

57%No
  • No57
  • Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Chooka Talesh ↓

Shahrdari Astara →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–19%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–112%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–14%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
66%34%2.5
39%61%3.5
19%81%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Chooka Talesh or draw
78%
Chooka Talesh or Shahrdari Astara
73%
Draw or Shahrdari Astara
49%

Winning margin

Chooka Talesh wins by 2+
25%
Shahrdari Astara wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Chooka Talesh 1+ goals
76%
Chooka Talesh 2+ goals
42%
Chooka Talesh 3+ goals
17%
Shahrdari Astara 1+ goals
56%
Shahrdari Astara 2+ goals
20%
Shahrdari Astara 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Chooka Talesh (draw refunded)
70%
Shahrdari Astara (draw refunded)
30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
30%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Chooka Talesh at home — creates 1.15, concedes 1.27 · 33 matches

Shahrdari Astara away — creates 0.40, concedes 1.71 · 84 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Chooka Talesh attack 1.15 + Shahrdari Astara defence 1.71 → ÷2 → 1.43

Shahrdari Astara attack 0.40 + Chooka Talesh defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 0.83

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Chooka Talesh scores more
51%
level
27%
Shahrdari Astara scores more
22%

Chooka Talesh at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Chooka Talesh will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Chooka Talesh vs Shahrdari Astara

Chooka Talesh beat Shahrdari Astara 3-0 in Azadegan League on February 25, 2023.

The match was played at Pouria Vali Talesh Stadium in Talesh.