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Chooka Talesh vs Shahin Bushehr — Azadegan League 2018

Chooka Talesh
Chooka Talesh
FT
0 – 2
Shahin Bushehr
Shahin Bushehr
5/27/2021Azadegan LeagueAzadegan League · Round 26Sardar Jangal Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 33+ matches

Chooka Talesh37%
×Draw31%
Shahin Bushehr33%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Chooka Talesh
1.05
Shahin Bushehr
0.98

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 33 home / 48 away

creates per match

Chooka Talesh
1.15
Shahin Bushehr
0.69

allows per match

Chooka Talesh
1.27
Shahin Bushehr
0.96

finishing

Chooka Talesh+0.00on par
Shahin Bushehr+0.00on par

Total goals

67%Under
  • Under67
  • Over33

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

59%No
  • No59
  • Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Chooka Talesh ↓

Shahin Bushehr →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–013%
0–113%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–014%
1–114%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–17%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
87%13%1.5
60%40%2.5
33%67%3.5
15%85%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Chooka Talesh or draw
67%
Chooka Talesh or Shahin Bushehr
69%
Draw or Shahin Bushehr
63%

Winning margin

Chooka Talesh wins by 2+
14%
Shahin Bushehr wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Chooka Talesh 1+ goals
65%
Chooka Talesh 2+ goals
28%
Chooka Talesh 3+ goals
9%
Shahin Bushehr 1+ goals
62%
Shahin Bushehr 2+ goals
26%
Shahin Bushehr 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Chooka Talesh (draw refunded)
53%
Shahin Bushehr (draw refunded)
47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
27%
Both score & under 3
14%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Chooka Talesh at home — creates 1.15, concedes 1.27 · 33 matches

Shahin Bushehr away — creates 0.69, concedes 0.96 · 48 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Chooka Talesh attack 1.15 + Shahin Bushehr defence 0.96 → ÷2 → 1.05

Shahin Bushehr attack 0.69 + Chooka Talesh defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 0.98

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Chooka Talesh scores more
37%
level
31%
Shahin Bushehr scores more
33%

Chooka Talesh at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Chooka Talesh will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Azadegan League: Chooka Talesh 0–2 Shahin Bushehr

Shahin Bushehr beat Chooka Talesh 2-0 in Azadegan League on May 27, 2021.

The match was played at Sardar Jangal Stadium in Aqa Sayyed Sharif, Rasht.