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Chooka Talesh vs Pars Jonoubi JAM — Azadegan League 2018

Chooka Talesh
Chooka Talesh
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Pars Jonoubi JAM
Pars Jonoubi JAM
9/20/2022Azadegan LeagueAzadegan League · Round 5Pouria Vali Talesh Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 33+ matches

Chooka Talesh37%
×Draw29%
Pars Jonoubi JAM34%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Chooka Talesh
1.14
Pars Jonoubi JAM
1.08

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 33 home / 100 away

creates per match

Chooka Talesh
1.15
Pars Jonoubi JAM
0.89

allows per match

Chooka Talesh
1.27
Pars Jonoubi JAM
1.12

finishing

Chooka Talesh+0.00on par
Pars Jonoubi JAM+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Under
  • Under62
  • Over38

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

55%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Chooka Talesh ↓

Pars Jonoubi JAM →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–112%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
65%35%2.5
38%62%3.5
18%82%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Chooka Talesh or draw
66%
Chooka Talesh or Pars Jonoubi JAM
71%
Draw or Pars Jonoubi JAM
63%

Winning margin

Chooka Talesh wins by 2+
15%
Pars Jonoubi JAM wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Chooka Talesh 1+ goals
68%
Chooka Talesh 2+ goals
32%
Chooka Talesh 3+ goals
11%
Pars Jonoubi JAM 1+ goals
66%
Pars Jonoubi JAM 2+ goals
29%
Pars Jonoubi JAM 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Chooka Talesh (draw refunded)
52%
Pars Jonoubi JAM (draw refunded)
48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
32%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Chooka Talesh at home — creates 1.15, concedes 1.27 · 33 matches

Pars Jonoubi JAM away — creates 0.89, concedes 1.12 · 100 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Chooka Talesh attack 1.15 + Pars Jonoubi JAM defence 1.12 → ÷2 → 1.14

Pars Jonoubi JAM attack 0.89 + Chooka Talesh defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.08

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Chooka Talesh scores more
37%
level
29%
Pars Jonoubi JAM scores more
34%

Chooka Talesh at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Chooka Talesh will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Azadegan League: Chooka Talesh 0–0 Pars Jonoubi JAM

Chooka Talesh and Pars Jonoubi JAM drew 0-0 in Azadegan League on September 20, 2022.

The match was played at Pouria Vali Talesh Stadium in Talesh.