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Chooka Talesh vs Mes Kerman — Azadegan League 2018

Chooka Talesh
Chooka Talesh
FT
1 – 1
Mes Kerman
Mes Kerman
5/13/2021Azadegan LeagueAzadegan League · Round 24Sardar Jangal Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 33+ matches

Chooka Talesh32%
×Draw31%
Mes Kerman37%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Chooka Talesh
0.92
Mes Kerman
1.02

Mes Kerman creates 11% more chances

Season form · 33 home / 116 away

creates per match

Chooka Talesh
1.15
Mes Kerman
0.78

allows per match

Chooka Talesh
1.27
Mes Kerman
0.69

finishing

Chooka Talesh+0.00on par
Mes Kerman+0.00on par

Total goals

69%Under
  • Under69
  • Over31

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

62%No
  • No62
  • Yes38

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Chooka Talesh ↓

Mes Kerman →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–014%
0–115%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–16%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
86%14%1.5
58%42%2.5
31%69%3.5
13%87%4.5
5%95%

Double chance

Chooka Talesh or draw
63%
Chooka Talesh or Mes Kerman
69%
Draw or Mes Kerman
68%

Winning margin

Chooka Talesh wins by 2+
11%
Mes Kerman wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Chooka Talesh 1+ goals
60%
Chooka Talesh 2+ goals
23%
Chooka Talesh 3+ goals
7%
Mes Kerman 1+ goals
64%
Mes Kerman 2+ goals
27%
Mes Kerman 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Chooka Talesh (draw refunded)
46%
Mes Kerman (draw refunded)
54%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
25%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Chooka Talesh at home — creates 1.15, concedes 1.27 · 33 matches

Mes Kerman away — creates 0.78, concedes 0.69 · 116 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Chooka Talesh attack 1.15 + Mes Kerman defence 0.69 → ÷2 → 0.92

Mes Kerman attack 0.78 + Chooka Talesh defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.02

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Chooka Talesh scores more
32%
level
31%
Mes Kerman scores more
37%

Mes Kerman at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Mes Kerman will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Chooka Talesh vs Mes Kerman

Chooka Talesh and Mes Kerman drew 1-1 in Azadegan League on May 13, 2021.

The match was played at Sardar Jangal Stadium in Aqa Sayyed Sharif, Rasht.