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Chooka Talesh vs Malavan — Azadegan League 2018

Chooka Talesh
Chooka Talesh
FT
0 – 2
Malavan
Malavan
11/29/2020Azadegan LeagueAzadegan League · Round 2Sardar Jangal Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 33+ matches

Chooka Talesh38%
×Draw30%
Malavan33%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Chooka Talesh
1.12
Malavan
1.02

Chooka Talesh creates 10% more chances

Season form · 33 home / 66 away

creates per match

Chooka Talesh
1.15
Malavan
0.76

allows per match

Chooka Talesh
1.27
Malavan
1.09

finishing

Chooka Talesh+0.00on par
Malavan+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Under
  • Under64
  • Over36

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

57%No
  • No57
  • Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Chooka Talesh ↓

Malavan →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–112%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
63%37%2.5
36%64%3.5
17%83%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Chooka Talesh or draw
67%
Chooka Talesh or Malavan
70%
Draw or Malavan
62%

Winning margin

Chooka Talesh wins by 2+
15%
Malavan wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Chooka Talesh 1+ goals
67%
Chooka Talesh 2+ goals
31%
Chooka Talesh 3+ goals
10%
Malavan 1+ goals
64%
Malavan 2+ goals
27%
Malavan 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Chooka Talesh (draw refunded)
54%
Malavan (draw refunded)
46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
30%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Chooka Talesh at home — creates 1.15, concedes 1.27 · 33 matches

Malavan away — creates 0.76, concedes 1.09 · 66 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Chooka Talesh attack 1.15 + Malavan defence 1.09 → ÷2 → 1.12

Malavan attack 0.76 + Chooka Talesh defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.02

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Chooka Talesh scores more
38%
level
30%
Malavan scores more
33%

Chooka Talesh at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Chooka Talesh will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Chooka Talesh vs Malavan

Malavan beat Chooka Talesh 2-0 in Azadegan League on November 29, 2020.

The match was played at Sardar Jangal Stadium in Aqa Sayyed Sharif, Rasht.