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Chooka Talesh vs Darya Babol — Azadegan League 2018

Chooka Talesh
Chooka Talesh
FT
1 – 3
HT: 0 – 1
Darya Babol
Darya Babol
5/23/2023Azadegan LeagueAzadegan League · Round 34Pouria Vali Talesh Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 33+ matches

Chooka Talesh39%
×Draw30%
Darya Babol31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Chooka Talesh
1.14
Darya Babol
0.99

Chooka Talesh creates 15% more chances

Season form · 33 home / 34 away

creates per match

Chooka Talesh
1.15
Darya Babol
0.71

allows per match

Chooka Talesh
1.27
Darya Babol
1.12

finishing

Chooka Talesh+0.00on par
Darya Babol+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Under
  • Under64
  • Over36

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

57%No
  • No57
  • Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Chooka Talesh ↓

Darya Babol →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–112%
0–26%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
63%37%2.5
36%64%3.5
17%83%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Chooka Talesh or draw
69%
Chooka Talesh or Darya Babol
70%
Draw or Darya Babol
61%

Winning margin

Chooka Talesh wins by 2+
16%
Darya Babol wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Chooka Talesh 1+ goals
68%
Chooka Talesh 2+ goals
32%
Chooka Talesh 3+ goals
11%
Darya Babol 1+ goals
63%
Darya Babol 2+ goals
26%
Darya Babol 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Chooka Talesh (draw refunded)
55%
Darya Babol (draw refunded)
45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
29%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Chooka Talesh at home — creates 1.15, concedes 1.27 · 33 matches

Darya Babol away — creates 0.71, concedes 1.12 · 34 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Chooka Talesh attack 1.15 + Darya Babol defence 1.12 → ÷2 → 1.14

Darya Babol attack 0.71 + Chooka Talesh defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 0.99

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Chooka Talesh scores more
39%
level
30%
Darya Babol scores more
31%

Chooka Talesh at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Chooka Talesh will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Azadegan League: Chooka Talesh 1–3 Darya Babol

Darya Babol beat Chooka Talesh 3-1 in Azadegan League on May 23, 2023.

The match was played at Pouria Vali Talesh Stadium in Talesh.