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Chooka Talesh vs Arman Gohar — Azadegan League 2018

Chooka Talesh
Chooka Talesh
FT
2 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Arman Gohar
Arman Gohar
1/25/2023Azadegan LeagueAzadegan League · Round 19Pouria Vali Talesh Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 33+ matches

Chooka Talesh41%
×Draw28%
Arman Gohar31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Chooka Talesh
1.29
Arman Gohar
1.08

Chooka Talesh creates 19% more chances

Season form · 33 home / 68 away

creates per match

Chooka Talesh
1.15
Arman Gohar
0.90

allows per match

Chooka Talesh
1.27
Arman Gohar
1.44

finishing

Chooka Talesh+0.00on par
Arman Gohar+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Under
  • Under58
  • Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Chooka Talesh ↓

Arman Gohar →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–110%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
68%32%2.5
42%58%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Chooka Talesh or draw
69%
Chooka Talesh or Arman Gohar
72%
Draw or Arman Gohar
59%

Winning margin

Chooka Talesh wins by 2+
19%
Arman Gohar wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Chooka Talesh 1+ goals
72%
Chooka Talesh 2+ goals
37%
Chooka Talesh 3+ goals
14%
Arman Gohar 1+ goals
66%
Arman Gohar 2+ goals
29%
Arman Gohar 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Chooka Talesh (draw refunded)
57%
Arman Gohar (draw refunded)
43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Chooka Talesh at home — creates 1.15, concedes 1.27 · 33 matches

Arman Gohar away — creates 0.90, concedes 1.44 · 68 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Chooka Talesh attack 1.15 + Arman Gohar defence 1.44 → ÷2 → 1.29

Arman Gohar attack 0.90 + Chooka Talesh defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.08

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Chooka Talesh scores more
41%
level
28%
Arman Gohar scores more
31%

Chooka Talesh at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Chooka Talesh will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Chooka Talesh vs Arman Gohar

Chooka Talesh beat Arman Gohar 2-0 in Azadegan League on January 25, 2023.

The match was played at Pouria Vali Talesh Stadium in Talesh.