Chongqing Tongliang Long 2–0 Sichuan Jiuniu

Chongqing Tongliang Long

FT

2 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Sichuan Jiuniu

Xiang Yuwang 79'

Chen Chunxin 47'

4/17/2026

Super League · Round 6Tongliang Long Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 9+ matches

Chongqing Tongliang Long45%

×Draw26%

Sichuan Jiuniu29%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Chongqing Tongliang LongExpected goals in this matchSichuan Jiuniu

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.48

1.15

Chongqing Tongliang Long

1.48

Sichuan Jiuniu

1.15

Chongqing Tongliang Long creates 29% more chances

Season form · 9 home / 21 away

1.05

creates per match

1.03

1.26

allows per match

1.90

creates per match

Chongqing Tongliang Long

1.05

Sichuan Jiuniu

1.03

allows per match

Chongqing Tongliang Long

1.26

Sichuan Jiuniu

1.90

+0.39scores more than expected

finishing

-0.46scores less than expected

finishing

Chongqing Tongliang Long+0.39scores more

Sichuan Jiuniu-0.46scores less

Total goals

Under51
Over49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes53
No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Chongqing Tongliang Long ↓

Sichuan Jiuniu →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–18%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–112%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

74%26%2.5

49%51%3.5

27%73%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Chongqing Tongliang Long or draw

71%

Chongqing Tongliang Long or Sichuan Jiuniu

74%

Draw or Sichuan Jiuniu

55%

Winning margin

Chongqing Tongliang Long wins by 2+

22%

Sichuan Jiuniu wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Chongqing Tongliang Long 1+ goals

77%

Chongqing Tongliang Long 2+ goals

43%

Chongqing Tongliang Long 3+ goals

19%

Sichuan Jiuniu 1+ goals

68%

Sichuan Jiuniu 2+ goals

32%

Sichuan Jiuniu 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Chongqing Tongliang Long (draw refunded)

60%

Sichuan Jiuniu (draw refunded)

40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

40%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Chongqing Tongliang Long at home — creates 1.05, concedes 1.26 · 9 matches

Sichuan Jiuniu away — creates 1.03, concedes 1.90 · 21 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Chongqing Tongliang Long attack 1.05 + Sichuan Jiuniu defence 1.90 → ÷2 → 1.48

Sichuan Jiuniu attack 1.03 + Chongqing Tongliang Long defence 1.26 → ÷2 → 1.15

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Chongqing Tongliang Long scores more

45%

level

26%

Sichuan Jiuniu scores more

29%

Chongqing Tongliang Long at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Chongqing Tongliang Long will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

38

Ruan Qilong

Chongqing Tongliang Long · D

7.7

Match Events

42'

Filip Benković

46'

D. Owusu-Sekyere← Ghojaehmet Shahzat

47'

Chen Chunxin

61'

Jiang Zhipeng← Dai Wai-Tsun

69'

Ng Yu-Hei← Chen Chunxin

77'

Yao Junsheng← Nan Song

78'

Tim Chow

79'

Xiang Yuwang

89'

Wei Suowei← G. Cimpanu

90+2'

Li Ning

90+3'

X. Huang← Xiang Yuwang

90+3'

J. Liu← Zhang Zhixiong

90+3'

Yue Ruijie← Ruan Qilong

90+1'

Yu Rui← Yang Yiming

90+1'

Li Ning← Wesley Moraes

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

ChongqingSichuan

Overview

68%Possession32%

12Total Shots6

0.92Expected Goals (xG)0.26

11Corners1

6Fouls8

Shots

12Total Shots6

4On Target1

5Off Target4

3Blocked1

7Inside Box2

5Outside Box4

Passing

68%Possession32%

612Total Passes293

547Accurate Passes228

89%Pass Accuracy78%

Goalkeeping

1Saves2

Discipline

6Fouls8

0Yellow Cards2

0Red Cards1

0Offsides1