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Chongqing Tongliang Long vs Guangxi Baoyun — League One 2018

Chongqing Tongliang Long
Chongqing Tongliang Long
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Guangxi Baoyun
Guangxi Baoyun
11/3/2024League OneLeague One · Round 30Tongliang Long Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

Chongqing Tongliang Long51%
×Draw28%
Guangxi Baoyun21%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Chongqing Tongliang Long
1.38
Guangxi Baoyun
0.77

Chongqing Tongliang Long creates 79% more chances

Season form · 30 home / 63 away

creates per match

Chongqing Tongliang Long
1.50
Guangxi Baoyun
0.86

allows per match

Chongqing Tongliang Long
0.67
Guangxi Baoyun
1.25

finishing

Chongqing Tongliang Long+0.00on par
Guangxi Baoyun+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Under
  • Under64
  • Over36

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

60%No
  • No60
  • Yes40

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Chongqing Tongliang Long ↓

Guangxi Baoyun →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–19%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–016%
1–112%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–14%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
63%37%2.5
36%64%3.5
17%83%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Chongqing Tongliang Long or draw
79%
Chongqing Tongliang Long or Guangxi Baoyun
72%
Draw or Guangxi Baoyun
49%

Winning margin

Chongqing Tongliang Long wins by 2+
25%
Guangxi Baoyun wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Chongqing Tongliang Long 1+ goals
75%
Chongqing Tongliang Long 2+ goals
40%
Chongqing Tongliang Long 3+ goals
16%
Guangxi Baoyun 1+ goals
54%
Guangxi Baoyun 2+ goals
18%
Guangxi Baoyun 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Chongqing Tongliang Long (draw refunded)
71%
Guangxi Baoyun (draw refunded)
29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
28%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Chongqing Tongliang Long at home — creates 1.50, concedes 0.67 · 30 matches

Guangxi Baoyun away — creates 0.86, concedes 1.25 · 63 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Chongqing Tongliang Long attack 1.50 + Guangxi Baoyun defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.38

Guangxi Baoyun attack 0.86 + Chongqing Tongliang Long defence 0.67 → ÷2 → 0.77

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Chongqing Tongliang Long scores more
51%
level
28%
Guangxi Baoyun scores more
21%

Chongqing Tongliang Long at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Chongqing Tongliang Long will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

League One: Chongqing Tongliang Long 1–1 Guangxi Baoyun

Chongqing Tongliang Long and Guangxi Baoyun drew 1-1 in League One on November 3, 2024.

The match was played at Tongliang Long Stadium in Chongqing.