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Chongqing Lifan vs Tianjin Songjiang — Super League 2018

Chongqing Lifan
Chongqing Lifan
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Tianjin Songjiang
Tianjin Songjiang
5/5/2018Super LeagueSuper League · Round 9Chongqing Olympic Sports Center

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

Chongqing Lifan42%
×Draw24%
Tianjin Songjiang33%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Chongqing Lifan
1.58
Tianjin Songjiang
1.37

Chongqing Lifan creates 15% more chances

Season form · 50 home / 30 away

creates per match

Chongqing Lifan
1.26
Tianjin Songjiang
1.40

allows per match

Chongqing Lifan
1.34
Tianjin Songjiang
1.90

finishing

Chongqing Lifan+0.00on par
Tianjin Songjiang+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Over
  • Over56
  • Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Chongqing Lifan ↓

Tianjin Songjiang →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–17%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–111%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
56%44%3.5
34%66%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Chongqing Lifan or draw
67%
Chongqing Lifan or Tianjin Songjiang
76%
Draw or Tianjin Songjiang
58%

Winning margin

Chongqing Lifan wins by 2+
21%
Tianjin Songjiang wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Chongqing Lifan 1+ goals
79%
Chongqing Lifan 2+ goals
47%
Chongqing Lifan 3+ goals
21%
Tianjin Songjiang 1+ goals
75%
Tianjin Songjiang 2+ goals
40%
Tianjin Songjiang 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

Chongqing Lifan (draw refunded)
56%
Tianjin Songjiang (draw refunded)
44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
48%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Chongqing Lifan at home — creates 1.26, concedes 1.34 · 50 matches

Tianjin Songjiang away — creates 1.40, concedes 1.90 · 30 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Chongqing Lifan attack 1.26 + Tianjin Songjiang defence 1.90 → ÷2 → 1.58

Tianjin Songjiang attack 1.40 + Chongqing Lifan defence 1.34 → ÷2 → 1.37

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Chongqing Lifan scores more
42%
level
24%
Tianjin Songjiang scores more
33%

Chongqing Lifan at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Chongqing Lifan will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Super League: Chongqing Lifan 0–1 Tianjin Songjiang

Tianjin Songjiang beat Chongqing Lifan 1-0 in Super League on May 5, 2018.

The match was played at Chongqing Olympic Sports Center in Chongqing.